Fed Watch
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Was July the Last Hike of This Rate Cycle?
The FOMC was at top of mind for investors this week, with a hike on July 26 viewed (accurately, as it turns out) as a virtual certainty. On Monday, the CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a 25bp hike (to 5.25%-5.50%) at 98.6%. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee...
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A Hawkish Pause, But What Comes Next?
Ahead of FOMC day, Head of Research Tom Lee noted that many investors were viewing the market from the lens of a conventional monetary policy cycle, leading them to expect a hard landing and remain leery of stocks until at least three or four rate cuts by the Fed. Instead,...
- Fed Watch
A 25 bp Rate Hike, but Will It Be the Last One?
The members of the FOMC voted on Wednesday, May 3 announced it would raise rates by +25 bp, as most on the Street predicted. The vote was unanimous. In its previous rate hike on March 22, the Fed wrote that “the committee anticipates that some additional policy forming may be...
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What Does The Fed’s November Hike Mean For Markets?
"As investors, we also always have to be aware of our innate and very human tendency to be fighting the last war. We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways." - Barton Biggs Source: Reddit The Federal Reserve held...
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What Does September’s Rate Hike and Dot Plot Mean For Markets?
The FOMC met yesterday to announce their latest rate hike. As the market for Fed Funds Futures implied leading up to the meeting, the committee decided on a 75-bps hike. We wanted to provide a special update on where things stand with the Fed and markets after their third-to-last meeting...
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The Smoke Clears After Jackson Hole, Jobs Report Encouraging
Hot labor market cooled moderately as employers slowed the pace of hiring, more people sought to rejoin the labor force, and pace of wage growth moderated. Deceleration came as a relief in contrast to the red-hot data characterizing much of the past two years. While the August jobs data reported...
- Fed Watch
Special Edition: Everything You Need to Know About Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made his much-anticipated keynote speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. While fixed income markets were largely positioned in anticipation of a hawkish message, equity markets retreated significantly, with the losses being the worst in high P/E equities. Powell had an abbreviated speech and...
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Fed Minutes: Despite Encouraging July CPI, Inflation Remains Far Too High
It’s not time for a victory lap just yet, even after markets have rallied substantially since their June lows, and an encouraging July CPI print pushed them higher. This week, the Fed released the minutes from its most recent policy meeting in late July. Fed officials, according to the minutes,...
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CPI and PPI Come in Below Expectations, Potentially Giving FOMC Some Breathing Room
There was finally some relief after a steady stream of hot inflation data. After 10 months of upside surprises, CPI finally came in lighter than expectations on Wednesday. Core CPI was slightly down and essentially flat, Food was slightly up, and Energy had the biggest drop and made the downside...
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Jobs surprise: U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July; CPI print coming next week
What recession? The good news: A much stronger than expected reading on July employment came in hot. The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department reported, far exceeding the 258,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6%, while average hourly earnings climbed 15 cents,...
