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Fed Watch

Fed Watch

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on Wednesday and elaborated on their decision not to raise rates or adjust the pace of asset purchases. Given the re-emergence of healthcare concerns around the Delta variant, there was much attention on the tone Powell struck with regards to the emerging risk. He exuded confidence on...

Powell Exudes Confidence, Hawks Get Louder and Cases Rise
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  • Fed Watch
Mar 13, 2020

Market Expects Big Fed Rate Cut in Coming Days; New QE?

Call me chicken or ambition challenged, but I wouldn’t want to be in the shoes of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell right about now. Sure, he has free limousine rides everywhere, bodyguards and everyone hangs on his every word. But right now Powell and his crew are facing the worst...

Tapering Conversation Heating Up, Powell’s Prospects

The Jackson Hole summit has become one of the most important economic summits in the world. Many expect that this hallowed event with humble origins may be the long-anticipated venue for the Fed to communicate their monetary policy plans to the American people. In 1982, the nascent event was chosen...

Powell Stands Strong In Accommodative Posture At Testimony

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell testified before Congress this week and, as usual, stuck to the expected talking points. He was pressed particularly hard on inflation by Republican lawmakers. You may or may not be surprised by what he said, but essentially it is more of the transitory narrative. Opposition...

Fed Minutes Show Doves Still in Charge, Employment Key To Taper

The Fed minutes have been released, and they showed that the market interpreted previous actions in a more “hawkish” context than was warranted. The doves remain firmly in control despite what may have been a tactical victory for the hawks on inflation. There appear to be seven members who are...

Fed Reverse Repo Facility Nears $1 Trillion In Use, Debt Ceiling Deadline Complicating Treasury Markets

There has been some anomalous behavior in treasury markets lately, perhaps best exemplified by the record set Wednesday when a total of $992 billion was parked in the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility where counterparties like large MMFs and other big market participants can park their cash with the US Central...

What FOMC Meeting? Fed Stress Tests Show Stable Banks

The consternation over the Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week seems about as a relevant as yesterday’s papers. The week began and finished strong, with the S&P 500 twice touching a new all-time-high. Rates appeared greatly subdued by the sweet nothings whispered into its ear by the Fed. The market appeared to interpret the […]

Fed Moves Liftoff Up a Year, Makes Technical Rate Adjustments

“If I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably misunderstood what I’ve said.”-Alan Greenspan Breaking rocks in the hot sun, you fought the fed and the fed won! Hopefully, you didn’t short bonds this week because if you did, you’re probably a bit testy and upset. It’s ok, we...

Does Market Accept Fed’s Transitory Narrative?

Well, we said that Jerome Powell has a good week and got a reprieve because of the ‘goldilocks’ numbers last week. We think maybe that this week he is even more pleased. Why? Because it appears the market is in quite a trusting mood with the Fed. Appearances can be...

Fed Gets Reprieve With “Goldilocks” Jobs Number

The goldilocks zone is a term that has cross-mutated to the common vernacular from the advanced fields of astrobiology and advanced astronomy. It refers to a planet so positioned like Earth where it is neither so hot that water will evaporate or so cold that it will freeze, thus giving...

Taper Talk Has Arrived, Rates Remain Subdued

The continued prevalence of high inflation numbers has the Fed in a bit of an awkward position, and on the periphery of the FOMC rumblings have begun about tapering. It appears the long foretold ‘thinking about, thinking about’ tapering has finally begun. However, the core position of the Fed and...

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