Crypto Research
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BITCOIN (BTC) “CRYPTO-WINTER” LOOKS TO BE OVER. A BULLISH 2024 LOOKS LIKELY TECHNICALLY FOLLOWING A 1Q CONSOLIDATION. Bitcoin looks to be giving off strong signals that the crypto-winter that has kept most coins in bear markets over the last couple years has finally run its course. The act of having taken the lead ahead of many cryptocurrencies in finally surpassing the 50% retracement area of its entire decline from 2021...
Liquidations Wipe Out $2.7 billion in OI, IMX Breakout Strengthens its Technical Picture
On Sunday evening, the perps market experienced a low liquidity liquidation cascade, eliminating about $2.7 billion in open interest (source: CoinGlass) across all coins. We interpret this as a healthy purge of some overleveraged traders, and any immediate market weakness should be viewed as an opportunity to buy on dips. BTC found support at last week's low and has since recovered about half of last night's dip. Today, our focus...
The combination of consumer sentiment and unemployment data has provided fuel to support the soft-landing scenario. UMich consumer sentiment came in higher-than-expected (69.4 vs. 62.0), 1-year inflation expectations dropped significantly from 4.5% to 3.1%, and the unemployment rate came in at 3.7% vs. 3.9% expected. Anchored inflation expectations and lower unemployment are giving investors optimism that inflation can retreat while the U.S. avoids a recession, driving the SPX (+0.30%) and...
CHALLENGING THE ACCUSATIONS OF FROTH Amidst the recent sharp rally in the crypto market, investors who weathered the prolonged bear market are understandably cautious, keeping a close watch for any signs of excess. Despite the violence in the most recent rally, we believe it's too early to declare the market as overbought. Our assessment is based on several factors:Perpetual futures data indicates a relatively modest level of long speculation, especially...
Equities are attempting to break a three-day losing streak, with the S&P rising 0.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.5% ahead of tomorrowâs jobs report. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 190k additional jobs added in November, an increase from the prior month. Investors are eagerly awaiting indications that the labor market is settling down, which could reassure the Federal Reserve to stop increasing interest rates. BTC is beginning to show...
Equities are flat after initially climbing following government data that showed labor market costs fell while productivity remained robust. Investors await confirmation from tomorrowâs jobless claims numbers, followed by nonfarm payrolls, wages, and unemployment rate on Friday. Long-term yields have fallen sharply after peaking near ~5% in October, with the 10Y and 30Y yielding 4.1% and 4.2%, respectively. BTC has continued climbing, rising 0.6% to $43.9k. ETH is underforming, falling...
After opening negative, equity indices have turned positive following the release of JOLTS data showing 8.7 million job openings versus 9.3 million expected, displaying further softening in the labor market. The market continues to pull forward the timeline of the Federal Reserveâs first rate cut, projecting a 55% chance of a March cut compared to a 25.6% chance a month ago. Within crypto markets, all eyes are on BTC (+3.96%) as...
Bitcoin experienced yet another weekend rally, breaking above $42,000 for the first time since the Terra unwind in April 2022. BTC has since retraced slightly, stabilizing around the $41.5k mark. A major beneficiary of the rally was STX 1.75% , the Bitcoin layer 2 token we pinpointed as a buy in our recent strategy note. The token has rallied impressively, marking an approximate 25% increase today and a 50% bump since the...
WEEKLY RECAP Crypto funding ended November on a high note, tripling last week’s funding total, rising to $301 million. This marks the second week out of the last three that saw over $300 million in total funding. Throughout November, crypto firms raised approximately $904 million, representing the highest monthly figure since April. Similarly, November saw 87 different deals, the highest count since May. It is encouraging to see private market...
