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Respecting the Pump

Treasury Refunding and Its Impact on Asset Prices

The bond market has been experiencing notable volatility, predominantly due to a phenomenon known as a bear steepening. This situation arises when short-term interest rates remain stable, but long-term rates rise precipitously. We attribute this volatility largely to an increase in the supply of long-duration assets, propelled by a growing budget deficit and the expectation of ongoing Treasury issuances.

While this bond market downturn has posed ch...

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