Oversold Signals Are Getting Loud, But Hard to Frame Today as Immediately Constructive

Discussed in today’s video:

  • Oversold Indicators Are Extremely Stretched: Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day return is in the 6th percentile since 2020, the 7-day return is in the 3rd percentile, and its deviation from the 50-day moving average has reached a z-score of roughly -2.8. These readings have only appeared during major stress events and historically tend to coincide with exhaustion in selloffs and the setup for multi-week bounces.
  • ETF Holders Capitulate: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen >$4 billion dollars of net outflows over the prior 30 trading days, rivalling prior capitulatory periods.
  • Perps Market Still Looks Complacent: Funding remains positive, and coin-denominated open interest has returned to pre 10/10 levels. Ideally, these would clear before a durable bottom.
  • Today’s Weakness Was Macro Driven: I speculated that crypto initially reacted to DAT headlines, but ultimately we were just front-running an equity selloff triggered by skepticism around AI CapEx sustainability, and potentially a “Fed Mistake.”
  • Equity Breakdown Could Present Further Headwinds: Weak equity price action would limit crypto’s ability to bounce in the immediate term.
  • Crypto Usually Bottoms First: If equities grind lower but BTC begins to outperform on a relative basis, that would likely signal a durable low forming.
Oversold Signals Are Getting Loud, But Hard to Frame Today as Immediately Constructive

Tickers in this video: BTC -7.32%

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You are reading the last free article for this month.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Already have an account? Sign In

Events

Trending crypto assets in our research

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You are reading the last free article for this month.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Already have an account? Sign In