Webinar
Tue, January 7, 2025 | 2:00PM ET
⚡ FlashInsights
Thu, January 2, 2025 | 11:53AM ET
One quick update on TSLA 8.84% - The stock's short-term pattern turned more negative on the violation of $415.41 this past Tuesday (New Year's Eve) and today's Q4 deliveries missed consensus and their 1st Quarter sales drop of 1.1% marks the first annual EV sales decline in a nearly a decade. While this brought about an "open-gap" this morning, this decline also appears short-term in nature and will make TSLA attractive if/when this reaches its 50% retracement level near 350 (which cannot be ruled out) My technical expectation is for a drop to $344-$362 before this bottoms which would make TSLA an appealing risk/reward for buying dips. Thus, similar to SPX, this has pulled back in an ABC-type pattern, while its larger trends and momentum remain quite bullish. Overall, I expect a bit more weakness over the next 4-6 trading days ahead of a possible low, and patience here is also needed in the short term, as lows do not yet seem to be in place.
⚡ FlashInsights
Thu, January 2, 2025 | 11:52AM ET
This daily ^SPX 1.25% chart helps to put this recent consolidation in US Equities into perspective. While the intermediate-term SPX uptrend intersects near 5700, the short-term trends and momentum are still negative. Key levels for today into tomorrow's close lie at resistance ranges at 5945-68 for SPX on the upside and 5832-5868 on the downside. Any break of this week's lows at 5868.86 should result in mid-December's lows being tested at 5832. If this level breaks (which is a distinct possibility) then it's likely that SPX 12/6-12/20 decline should be approximated in both time and price before bottoming, ultimately forming an ABC-type pattern over the next week. The good news for the "bulls" is that downside likely should not prove too extreme in either price or time before bottoming, and my downside area of stronger support lies at the 5650-5700 area. Overall, patience is required, but this ultimately should bring in buying opportunities sooner than later as fear should most certainly escalate if/when December lows at 5832.30 (SPX) are violated.
⚡ FlashInsights
Thu, January 2, 2025 | 10:51AM ET
Happy New Year All! As the first full trading day of 2025 gets underway, US Equities are attempting a rather lackluster bounce, but SPX will require much more strength this week to have some conviction that the decline is complete as the intermediate-term uptrend was broken for Equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP 0.92% ) and both daily and weekly MACD are now negative (indicating that near-term momentum has joined trends in turning more negative in recent weeks) Overall, while i expect that this consolidation should be complete by mid-January, it's hard to claim technically just yet that lows are in place. This weekly RSP chart shows the recent breakdown, and reclaiming this uptrend on better than average sector participation looks important. Patience required, and "no need to be the hero" in buying dips just yet technically, as SPX very well could move to 5650-5700 before bottoming.
⚡ FlashInsights
Mon, December 30, 2024 | 12:29PM ET
BTC Bitcoin has also broken 12/20 lows as of today, $92118, which constitutes a violation of the entire support since early November. (Recall that cycles called for BTC to peak in mid-December and potentially suffer a short-term correction in the 1st Quarter of 2025, bottoming in March) Given that the cycles seemed to peak "on-time", i have no reason to expect the trajectory for a further correction would be incorrect. Furthermore, a break of 92,118 on a daily close would allow for initially a pullback to $83k, which would roughly approximate the length of the first move down from $108k when measured from 12/26 peaks. Overall, the key point here is that a breakdown of $92.118 is a near-term negative development for BTC and would allow for at least a move down to 83k initially before much stabilization.
⚡ FlashInsights
Mon, December 30, 2024 | 12:19PM ET
For those who wish to zoom in on short-term price structure( which truly is helpful and the key towards understanding larger trends) one can see a three-wave bounce in ^SPX 1.25% which was complete as of last Thursday, followed by a three-wave decline into this morning. A bounce has begun, which i feel could fail and turn back lower to test 5832 initially. Getting above 5979 would be the first sign this is wrong, and then surpassing 6050 would help to get the trend back on track. (Also dubious as of now) What's important in this short-term picture is that any turn back lower from here under 5869 would allow for an immediate test of 5832, but then make any bounce one that would be prone to failure in the short run, for a decline down to 5700 area. I'll send out an update later this week with more details, but for now the last 24 hours has weakened the technical picture, and seven sectors out of 11 are down 1% or greater today, with Energy proving to be the standalone sector which is positive
