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Wed, January 15, 2025 | 1:00PM ET

Market Update & Top Ideas - January 2025

Speakers:
Tom Lee
Tom Lee, CFA AC

Co-founder and Head of Research

Tom Lee
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy

Daily Technical Strategy
Fri, January 10, 2025 | 5:54PM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy

CPI looks to be a possible catalyst for a turn if SPX gets near 5700

SPX’S TECHNICAL TREND AND MOMENTUM REMAIN BEARISH AND NOT OVERSOLD, AND FRIDAY’S BREAKDOWN TO NEW MONTHLY LOWS IS CONSIDERED A NEAR-TERM TECHNICAL NEGATIVE FOR PATTERNS...

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Visitor: EF376E8F-74F9-41C0-96A7-58005A3EA9D4

Fri, January 10, 2025 | 3:45PM ET

⚡ FlashInsights

Fri, January 10, 2025 | 3:45PM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy
🔥 🔥
It's interesting that while the Univ of Michigan's 1yr and 5-10 yr consumer inflation expectations surprised higher (and the most since the Lehman crisis), the market has taken a more benign view, with 5Y5Y forward swaps falling in recent months. We'll see if this persists and if Economy is truly reaccelerating. 5Y5Y has jumped in the last couple weeks, but still well under last Fall's peaks
Fri, January 10, 2025 | 3:45PM ET

⚡ FlashInsights

Fri, January 10, 2025 | 3:45PM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy
🔥 🔥
The inability to mount any kind of meaningful intra-day reversal points to a bit more weakness into early next week ahead of Wednesday's CPI. That could be a pivotal event, if SPX reaches 5700 and might coincide with a reversal. For now, we see that the breakdown in Equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP -1.57% ) on Financials and Healthcare weakness still makes it difficult to expect an immediate snapback as price has undercut the lows going back since December and has reached the lowest levels since last September. This might lead to another couple days of weakness into next week, and both trends and momentum remain bearish in the short run, as part of bullish intermediate-term patterns.
Fri, January 10, 2025 | 11:48AM ET

⚡ FlashInsights

Fri, January 10, 2025 | 11:48AM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy
🔥 🔥
As shown here, the TNX breakout today happened to coincide with a similar breakout (but to the downside) in SPX to new lows for the year. TNX being over 4.74 should be getting close to an area where this begins to find resistance, but today is a clear breakout of a level hit more than 8 months ago and trends have not shown much sign of stalling too much. My own expectations are that 4.80-4.85 are possible, but TNX should not immediately get over 5.02% which is a very important area for TNX
Fri, January 10, 2025 | 10:39AM ET

⚡ FlashInsights

Fri, January 10, 2025 | 10:39AM ET
Mark
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC

Head of Technical Strategy
🔥 🔥 🔥
This morning's Goldilocks Economic report has led Treasury yields to spike yet again and given the recent correlation with Treasuries and Equities, the "Good News is bad news" theme is causing Equities to sell off as thoughts of less Fed action is being priced into the curve. S&P has broken early January lows, while TNX has exceeded last Spring's highs at 4.74%. With regards to SPX, the most likely target lies near 5700-5725 for SPX, or around 100 points lower. Breadth is decidedly negative as might be expected at around 6/1 negative, and the volume is around 2/1 negative, but not nearly as capitulative to think that lows are imminent today- ARMS index, or TRIN is trading.66 and we'll need to see readings nearly at 2 to think that fear is setting in.

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