Solana
$SOL
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THE US DOLLAR WRECKING BALL CONTINUES Last week, our near-term outlook remained uncertain, though we leaned toward the possibility that a positive catalyst, such as a victory for Grayscale, could coincide with easing liquidity conditions. This would mark a significant departure from the tightening conditions—indicated by the DXY—that followed the last two crypto-specific catalysts this year. The likelihood of interest rates reaching a peak, the dollar beginning to decline, and...
Equities show mixed performance as oil prices continue their upward trajectory, potentially raising concerns over an inflationary burst. Interest rates are increasing across the board, with a more noticeable spike at the short end of the yield curve. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise, a near-term risk that has been a concern. Regarding macro updates, the next critical data to watch will be the U.S. Services PMI data...
Today's video discusses implications of Grayscale's landmark victory, the outlook for a Bitcoin spot ETF, DeFi sector regulation, and three major risks that could create tactical headwinds despite all the postitive catalysts. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here. https://vimeo. com/859942814/328e8c2424? share=copy Tickers in this report: $BTC, $OP, $ETH, $RPL, $ARB, $SOL, $UNI
GRAYSCALE VICTORY As recently discussed, we’ve been awaiting either short-term relief in liquidity conditions—indicated by falling interest rates, a declining DXY, and increasing central bank liquidity—or the realization of crypto-specific catalysts for better price action. This week, we received encouraging news on both fronts. The courts have ruled that the SEC acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner when denying the spot Bitcoin ETF. _Source: Court Decision in Grayscale v...
Today's video discusses liquidity conditions, two potentially pivotal events, Optimism's outperformance, and what DXY is saying about where the market is headed next. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here. https://vimeo. com/857730786/38b7b306bc? share=copy Tickers in this report: $BTC, $OP, $ETH, $RPL, $ARB, $SOL
MACRO HAS BEEN WINNING THE BATTLE Last week, we advanced the idea that the recent decline in volatility might be traced to two competing forces: (1) positive industry-specific tailwinds and (2) negative macro headwinds. Additionally, the recent dip in macro correlations could be attributed to unique catalysts, notably the BlackRock ETF application. Our thinking was that without further industry-specific catalysts, traditional macro correlations would likely return. As evidenced by the...
MACRO HEADWINDS VS. IDIOSYNCRATIC TAILWINDS In our prior notes, we highlighted the market's prevailing sideways trend. Over much of the past month, both BTC and ETH have exhibited remarkable stability, moving within a narrow range. Their realized and implied volatilities are nearing all-time lows. _Sources: Glassnode, Fundstrat_ We've also emphasized the waning correlation between Bitcoin's daily returns and macro assets such as tech stocks and the US dollar index. These...
Major equity indices are sliding today, impacted by disappointing trade data from China overnight. This decline was further compounded by credit downgrades issued by Moody's for multiple regional banks, such as M&T Bank and Pinnacle Financial. These downgrades were attributed to deposit risks, looming recession concerns, and commercial real estate portfolios faltering. As a ripple effect, the DXY has surged by 50 bps in response to these negative headlines. Long-term...
PAINT DRYING Over the past few weeks, watching Bitcoin’s price action has been akin to watching paint dry. Earlier this week, bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility reached levels not witnessed since July 2020. I shared the chart below in Wednesday’s market update. I noted that historical data indicates that such drawdowns in volatility often precede significant price movements. Recognizing the importance of this insight, we decided to delve deeper into the...
