A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“The measure of a society is found in how they treat their weakest and most helpless citizens.” – Former President Jimmy Carter
Overnight
East Coast, Gulf Coast ports strike causes first shutdown in 50 years RT
Israel begins ground invasion in southern Lebanon SEM
Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte officially takes over as NATO head USN
Powell indicates further, smaller rate cuts CNBC
Borrowers smash global records to sell $600B in debt last month BBG
Aircraft owners prepare for ‘mega trial’ in dispute with insurers over planes stuck in Russia FT
Biden approves $567 mln in defense support for Taiwan, White House says RT
US sets new rule that could spur AI chip shipments to the Middle East RT
FTC clears Chevron-Hess deal, bans Hess CEO from board over alleged OPEC conspiracy CNBC
SoftBank to invest $500 million in OpenAI INF
CVS is working with advisors on strategic review, sources say CNBC
Google, Samsung accused of obstructing Fortnite downloads WSJ
Marsh McLennan to Acquire McGriff Insurance in $7.8 Billion Deal BBG
US reaches $31.5 million settlement with T-Mobile over data breaches RT
Euro zone inflation falls to 1.8% in September, below ECB’s 2% target CNBC
Verizon resolves major mobile outage as FCC announces probe RT
US to help fund lithium production SEM
Russia cements its ‘war economy’ status with military spending hikes SEM
UK to finish with coal power after 142 years BBC
California enacts car data privacy law to curb domestic violence RT
Former President Jimmy Carter turns 100 BBC
A Himalayan river may be making Mt. Everest taller BBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -6
point(s) (-0.1%
) Overnight range: -14 to +8 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +1.93%
Topix +1.69% China SHCOMP flat Hang Seng flat Korea flat Singapore -0.12% Australia -0.74% India +0.02% Taiwan +0.75% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.09%
Stoxx 600 +0.24% FTSE 100 +0.29% DAX +0.23% CAC 40 -0.13% Italy -0.07% IBEX -0.33% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.24%
to 101.02 EUR/USD -0.37% to 1.1094 GBP/USD -0.37% to 1.3326 USD/JPY +0.06% to 143.72 USD/CNY flat at 7.0187 USD/CNH +0.22% to 7.0225 USD/CHF +0.15% to 0.8469 USD/CAD +0.09% to 1.3537 AUD/USD -0.12% to 0.6905 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +0.23%
to 63933.51 ETH +0.94% to 2638.19 XRP +1.03% to 0.6302 Cardano +1.0% to 0.3845 Solana +2.75% to 156.85 Avalanche +3.58% to 28.71 Dogecoin -0.34% to 0.1183 Chainlink +0.95% to 12.15 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +0.72%
to 16.85 WTI Crude -1.89% to 66.88 Brent Crude -1.8% to 70.48 Nat Gas -0.99% to 2.89 RBOB Gas -3.49% to 1.894 Heating Oil -0.81% to 2.115 Gold +0.52% to 2648.39 Silver +0.5% to 31.31 Copper +0.07% to 4.556 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.6bps
to 4.7975% 3M -8.2bps to 4.5352% 6M -7.9bps to 4.3243% 12M -3.0bps to 3.9723% 2Y -3.3bps to 3.6084% 5Y -3.4bps to 3.524% 7Y -3.6bps to 3.6122% 10Y -3.6bps to 3.7448% 20Y -4.1bps to 4.134% 30Y -4.2bps to 4.077% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread widened 2.6bps to -97.1
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 0.3bps to 13.4 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.6bps to 33.0 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.42%
SPX Eq Wt +0.13% NASDAQ 100 +0.26% NASDAQ Comp +0.38% Russell Midcap +0.12% R2k +0.24% R1k Value +0.27% R1k Growth +0.49% R2k Value +0.25% R2k Growth +0.23% FANG+ +0.36% Semis -0.92% Software +0.15% Biotech +0.38% Regional Banks +1.22% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Energy +0.83% Comm Srvcs +0.79% REITs +0.76% Healthcare +0.61% Tech +0.58% Indu +0.48% SPX +0.42% Utes +0.42% Fin +0.32% Cons Staples +0.09% Cons Disc -0.28% Materials -0.6% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -5.4bp
to 354bp All Sectors ex-Energy -5.6bp to 327bp Cons Disc -4.3bp to 309bp Indu -11.1bp to 253bp Tech -6.7bp to 349bp Comm Srvcs -7.4bp to 571bp Materials -7.1bp to 332bp Energy -1.5bp to 337bp Fin Snr -7.0bp to 311bp Fin Sub -3.8bp to 228bp Cons Staples -1.7bp to 321bp Healthcare -0.7bp to 372bp Utes -6.0bp to 219bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | 9:45AM | Sep F S&P Manu PMI | 47.0 | 47.0 |
| 10/1 | 10AM | Sep ISM Manu PMI | 47.5 | 47.2 |
| 10/1 | 10AM | Aug JOLTS | 7673.0 | 7673.0 |
| 10/3 | 9:45AM | Sep F S&P Srvcs PMI | 55.4 | 55.4 |
| 10/3 | 10AM | Sep ISM Srvcs PMI | 51.7 | 51.5 |
| 10/3 | 10AM | Aug F Durable Gds Orders | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 10/4 | 8:30AM | Sep AHE m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 10/4 | 8:30AM | Sep Unemployment Rate | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 10/4 | 8:30AM | Sep Non-farm Payrolls | 150.0 | 142.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
The S&P 500 closed September with a gain, making eight of nine up months, a sign of a strong market. October has iffy seasonality, but given this strength, the three fundamental drivers remain more important.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
Final trading day of September proves choppy, with yield curve flattening after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. Meanwhile, four names have been added to the Upticks list, while three names have been removed.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
Crypto is consolidating ahead of this week’s major economic data releases. BTC is testing its 200-day moving average, just below $64,000, while ETH is showing relative strength, trading above $2,600. SOL has outpaced both majors, trading just above $156.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Mules have been recruited to help deliver relief supplies to some of the many victims of Hurricane Helene in mountainous parts of western North Carolina, an indication of just how far inland the storm’s devastation reached. Indeed, one of the unusual and most unfortunate aspects of the Category 4 hurricane is how much of its strength it maintained after making landfall. This allowed the storm to devastate areas that until now had been considered “climate havens.” Asheville, NC, one of the cities most devastated by Helene, is 3,000 feet above sea level and 300 miles away from the coast. Consequently, places that had been viewed as relatively safe from hurricanes could come to also be regarded as at-risk. This means that the problem of escalating insurance premiums and insurers leaving the region could get worse.
In the immediate future, insurers hope that years of elevated premiums, a mild 2023 hurricane season with relatively few claims, and higher investment returns this year will all act as a financial buffer against the claims that are about to arrive. Jeff Brandes, founder and president of the Florida Policy Project, told CBS News that in the Sunshine State, “if [Helene] had shifted a few degrees east and hit Tampa Bay, the damages would be 20 times greater.” As it is, experts estimated that total costs from the Helene could reach as high as $34 billion in damages. (BAR, FT, TIJ, CSM)
