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CRYPTO Still risk-off for Bitcoin, not a matter of price…

Still risk-off for Bitcoin, not a matter of price…

Several hurdles expected to improve before year-end.  Plus, looking at mini-GBTC effect

For the most part, our current framework is that ‘crypto winter’ ended in late-2018 and Bitcoin is in a new bull market.  But like prior bull markets, the rise in price is not continuous and we are in the midst of a consolidation, with potential downside risk near-term (our TA Rob Sluymer has identified several downside targets).  In other words, the crypto market is not about being greedy, but rather, to keep sufficient dry powder to take advantage of dips.

The start of this risk-off period was July 31st because Fundstrat’s proprietary Bitcoin Misery Index (BMI) fell below 66.  Historically, a downturn in the BMI and a break below 66 signaled forthcoming weakness (see our report dated 7/30 --> click here for report).  And this has largely played out in 2019.  We are now waiting for the BMI to fall below 30 before concluding sentiment has properly reset.Other factors subsequently fueled the risk-off call for Fundstrat (Slide 3).  Among the factors: —August, S&P 500 rangebound and unpopular opinion is Bitcoin waiting for S&P 500 breakout; —Sept. 19th, White House banned “vaping,...

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