A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“It is preoccupation with possession, more than anything else, that prevents men from living freely and nobly.” — Bertrand Russell
Overnight
Cooling July inflation sets stage for Fed’s September rate cut WSJ
Japanese leader Fumio Kishida to step down WSJ
Africa public health body declares mpox emergency RT
BOE says key market rate is working fine after 70-day freeze BBG
U.K. services inflation eases, keeping door open for more rate cuts WSJ
Eurozone industrial activity contracts again WSJ
Firms hit with more than $475 million in fines for failing to monitor traders’ texts WSJ
FTC bans fake online reviews, inflated social media influence; rule takes effect in October CNBC
New U.K. government bets on green energy and companies are wary WSJ
Mortgage refinancing surges 35% in one week, as interest rates hit lowest level in over a year CNBC
A U.S. construction boom is sending rents lower and creating perks for renters CNBC
ChatGPT just got a surprise update, but OpenAI can’t explain how it’s better TR
Eric Schmidt walks back claim Google is behind on AI because of remote work WSJ
U.S. battery rush spurs $1.4 billion sodium-ion factory in North Carolina WSJ
How hedge funds are fighting back against the SEC’s ‘aggressive’ agenda FT
Large money managers have to disclose their investments; here’s how to find them MW
Elon Musk’s xAI launches Grok-2 in race to catch ChatGPT FT
Cisco cutting 7% of workforce, reports earnings and revenue beat for quarter CNBC
Nike up after Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital takes stake XM
DraftKings reverses plans for a tax on customers as FanDuel parent Flutter wows Wall Street CNBC
Chinese rocket breaks apart after megaconstellation launch, creating cloud of space junk LS
How Duolingo turned a free language app into a $7.7 billion business WSJ
JPMorgan reshuffle erodes power base of top deputy to Jamie Dimon FT
What the other generations can learn about preparing for retirement from Gen Z MW
Today is Ferragosto: the origins of Italy’s biggest holiday, how to celebrate it EN
George Poteet, the King of Amateur Landspeed Racing Who Said He Never Got a Speeding Ticket, Dies at 76 WSJ
Chart of the Day
MARKET LEVELS
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +8
point(s) (+0.1%
) Overnight range: -4 to +15 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.78%
Topix +0.73% China SHCOMP +0.94% Hang Seng -0.02% Korea flat Singapore +0.9% Australia +0.19% India flat Taiwan -0.6% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.27%
Stoxx 600 +0.23% FTSE 100 +0.07% DAX +0.38% CAC 40 +0.11% Italy flat IBEX +0.21% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.04%
to 102.6 EUR/USD flat at 1.1012 GBP/USD +0.21% to 1.2856 USD/JPY +0.04% to 147.39 USD/CNY +0.25% to 7.1589 USD/CNH +0.18% to 7.16 USD/CHF +0.16% to 0.8666 USD/CAD -0.09% to 1.3704 AUD/USD +0.41% to 0.6625 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -1.13%
to 58486.74 ETH -1.89% to 2625.98 XRP -0.49% to 0.5669 Cardano +0.75% to 0.3378 Solana -0.86% to 142.5 Avalanche flat at 20.95 Dogecoin -0.1% to 0.1028 Chainlink +0.23% to 10.4 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +0.93%
to 16.34 WTI Crude +0.48% to 77.35 Brent Crude +0.49% to 80.15 Nat Gas +0.68% to 2.23 RBOB Gas +0.5% to 2.333 Heating Oil +0.31% to 2.376 Gold +0.37% to 2456.85 Silver +1.78% to 28.06 Copper +1.58% to 4.104 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.4bps
to 5.3066% 3M -0.9bps to 5.1934% 6M -0.9bps to 4.9418% 12M -0.8bps to 4.4147% 2Y +0.4bps to 3.9594% 5Y +0.7bps to 3.6867% 7Y +0.7bps to 3.7339% 10Y +0.7bps to 3.8427% 20Y +1.0bps to 4.2263% 30Y +0.9bps to 4.134% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 0.3bps to -126.3
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 0.8bps to -11.9 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.3bps to 28.9 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.38%
SPX Eq Wt +0.21% NASDAQ 100 +0.09% NASDAQ Comp +0.03% Russell Midcap +0.16% R2k -0.52% R1k Value +0.43% R1k Growth +0.32% R2k Value -0.48% R2k Growth -0.56% FANG+ -0.08% Semis +0.08% Software +0.56% Biotech -0.89% Regional Banks -0.23% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Fin +1.29% Energy +0.66% Tech +0.61% Cons Staples +0.45% Healthcare +0.45% Indu +0.42% REITs +0.39% SPX +0.38% Materials +0.0% Utes -0.1% Cons Disc -0.41% Comm Srvcs -0.91% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -5.0bp
to 392bp All Sectors ex-Energy -7.1bp to 365bp Cons Disc +6.3bp to 351bp Indu -6.4bp to 297bp Tech -11.1bp to 379bp Comm Srvcs -11.5bp to 669bp Materials -7.9bp to 367bp Energy -5.7bp to 313bp Fin Snr -10.0bp to 350bp Fin Sub -4.3bp to 248bp Cons Staples -5.5bp to 335bp Healthcare -10.0bp to 422bp Utes -10.7bp to 234bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/15 | 8:30AM | Jul Import Price m/m | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 8/15 | 8:30AM | Jul Retail Sales m/m | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 8/15 | 10AM | Aug Homebuilder Sentiment | 43.0 | 42.0 |
| 8/15 | 4PM | Jun Net TIC Flows | n/a | 15.84 |
| 8/16 | 10AM | Aug P UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 8/16 | 10AM | Aug P UMich Sentiment | 66.9 | 66.4 |
| 8/21 | 2PM | Jul 31 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
As is the pattern for much of the past year, two components account for the bulk of inflation. Both of these are arguably lagging indicators and will eventually become disinflationary.
– auto insurance premiums are indeed rising and catching up due to a past rise in claims
– currently, auto insurance is still incrementally accelerating MoM +1.19% vs +0.92% prior
– shelter is on a glide path to lower as YoY is +5.05% vs 5.16% last month
– but this is a known “smoothed” series, so it takes time.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
As Mark Newton is on break, there will be no new reports or videos this week.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
10,000 Bitcoin, valued at nearly $600 million, have been transferred to a Coinbase Prime wallet, capturing the attention of traders once again. This transaction, reported by [Arkham Intelligence](https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/address/bc1qlap8hkt9genaljz5nt2zlehhudx63zlahr2zek), is believed to be part of the $2 billion worth of Bitcoin that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) seized in connection with the Silk Road case. The DOJ had previously moved these funds to an unidentified wallet two weeks ago, and this recent transfer to Coinbase Prime suggests that Coinbase may be moving the coins into longer-term custody, or potentially liquidating the confiscated assets.
Click HERE for more.
First News
A NIMBY of Galactic Proportions. In May of this year, potentially lethal debris fell from orbit and landed in an open area belonging to a Saskatchewan farmer. He found the space junk while preparing his fields for springtime seeding.
It’s not so much the debris itself, which looked like the charred, battered hood of a Mack truck, covered as it was with woven carbon fiber and some partially melted aluminum protrusions, but the fact that so much of the object remained past entry through the Earth’s atmosphere, which, in the popular imagination, is supposed to burn up anything smaller than the asteroid from Don’t Look Up.
The fact that it turned out to be a SpaceX Crew Dragon trunk ejected by the Axiom 3 private astronaut mission that had re-entered over the Canadian prairies on February 26, 2024 highlights the skyrocketing risks of space junk sufficiently indifferent to the vaporizing properties of the atmosphere to increasingly inundate our lives, making sure we get from space as good as we give it.
Animated at least in part by its founder’s maniacal focus on developing the technological base to one day colonize Mars, SpaceX is meantime building a broadband internet business in the interests of which it has been launching huge numbers of its Starlink internet broadband satellites since 2019. Better than 6,000 are in orbit; worse is what’s planned – as many as 42,000. As Starlink has grown, along with competing plans for other satellite ‘mega constellations’, the sky has been filled with bright, easily visible satellites. Beyond this light pollution – which robs us of a precious connection to our ancient forebears inherent in the ability to look up at the same sky they saw a thousand or a hundred thousand years ago – new research shows that atmospheric pollution is skyrocketing from the SpaceX-dominated dramatic increase in launches and re-entries – with potentially disastrous global effects.
From the ever-relevant climate-change point of view, the aluminum oxide produced by sublimating satellites in Earth’s upper atmosphere is actually a potent and lasting catalyst for chemical reactions similar to those that in the last century famously gnawed a large hole in the Earth’s fragile radiation-blocking ozone layer.
Last month, NASA awarded the same company, SpaceX, a contract for $843 million to destroy the International Space Station in pre-planned fashion as early as 2030. Yes, Russia brought down its Mir space station in 2001 at the same Point Nemo in the Pacific Ocean – a graveyard for those bits of space junk we were kind enough to trash in our own backyard – in a controlled fashion, but two days ago, a Chinese rocket launch from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center reportedly resulted in a fragmentation that subsequently created ~700 new debris objects in low Earth orbit.
Soon, unable to escape urban light pollution or the increasing presence of trashy man-made flickers in the night sky, we may be reduced to a paltry predicament: look up, feel overwhelmed, look away. Space.com
