New cases have now been falling for 24 consecutive days. What this means is that we could be below 50,000 new daily cases by Valentine's Day. Hospitalizations are also down as are daily deaths. Even in South Africa, where a feared variant originated, cases are collapsing significantly despite the presence of B.1.351. These items should serve as a sanity check that markets can now begin to focus on re-opening.

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The United States is also seeing greater penetration of vaccinations. Now 42% of the United States has vaccinated more than 10% of residents. We believe a key turning point will be 100% of the US reaching at least 30% vaccination rates.

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The market rout last week that was most notably experienced by Long/Short Hedge Funds has led to an evolution of our thinking on the near-term path of markets. Given that downward price pressure, and the largest corrections, are driven by the overextension of capital, particularly institutional capital, we think there is a high possibility that the scope and scale of the position squaring and ‘blood-letting’ that occurred last week was great enough to make the occurrance10% correction that we and the consensus were predicting highly unlikely. Thus, our base-case has changed.

One of the primary drivers of our evolving thi...

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