This coming week will see the first debate of the 2024 Presidential cycle between the two major party candidates as Democrat President Joe Biden, and former Republican President Donald Trump meet in a debate to be broadcast on Thursday, June 27 on CNN at 9:00 EDT. It will be the earliest candidate debate since televised Presidential debates started when Senator John Kennedy debated Vice President Richard Nixon in 1960.
While I have never prepared candidates for a Presidential debate, I have prepared US Senate candidates for their televised debates, and this debate seems to have the potential for developments for both candidates.
President Biden at age 81 and former President Trump at 78 will be the oldest candidates to meet on a debate stage. Polls show that while there is only a four-year difference in their ages, voters view Biden’s age as a major issue. President Trump is able to project more energy than President Biden putting a great deal of pressure on Biden to demonstrate enough stamina to win over voters who have concerns about his age.
Election observers believe that former President Trump undercut his position with voters in 2020 when he interrupted Biden and talked over the former Vice President as the two answered reporters’ questions. One of the rules for this week’s debate is that microphones will be turned off when the candidate isn’t speaking – this could help Trump, as polling indicates voter unease with his over assertive style in the 2020 debates.
From my days as a Senate debate prep person, I think it will be very hard to prep energy. President Biden on the stump and when making official statements appears to have a solid grasp of the issues, but he appears to occasionally show a lack of energy and can have a “senior moment” and give the impression of being disoriented.
Former President Trump tends to ramble; a recent example were his remarks at a rally when he started talking about the decision one could have to make if on a sinking electric boat at sea between staying with the boat risking electrocution or swimming in shark infested waters. Again, from my debate prep experience I am not sure how one instills intellectual discipline in a candidate who has been successful with a rambling speaking style.
The general rule in politics is that voters don’t really focus on their candidate decisions until after Labor Day. However, with two candidates with much to prove this week’s debate could be a pivotal point as undecided voters take an early look at their choices.
Supreme Court
It is likely to be a big week at the Supreme Court. The Justices like to end their term prior to the July 4th holiday making the last week of June filled with consequential decisions.
Three of the biggest are President Trump’s claim of immunity from charges of misconduct while he was President, Justice Department charges of January 6 rioters obstructing a government proceeding, and the closely watched business decision of how much leeway federal agencies have to interpret ambiguous federal statutes, the so-called Chevron doctrine.
My view is that the Court is likely to wait until after the Presidential debate before dealing with the immunity claim, and that would allow for a decision on Friday, the day after the debate. Similarly, the decision on those convicted on obstructing and official proceeding for January 6 crimes may also be handed down on Friday. The last Friday of the month before the end of the term is often a big decision day.
The so-called Chevron principle has long been a target of the business community. It can let the Congress off the hook for not being clear with legislative language giving wide discretion to federal government agencies to issue far reaching rules under the guise of lack of Congressional clarity. As someone who fought some of these cases as a lobbyist for a very large financial firm, I know that there are many interests hoping for a narrowing of the Chevron doctrine.
Chair Powell testimony
The Federal Reserve announced last week that Chair Powell will appear before Congress for his bi-annual testimony on July 9 and 10. On July 9 the Chair will appear before the Senate Banking Committee and on July 10 before the House Financial Services Committee. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for the end of the month on July 30/31 this may be the last thoughts we get from the Chair until the statement and presser on July 31.
