Ukraine/Israel aid hits home stretch.
- House approved Military Supplemental
- Ukraine/Israel aid up for Senate vote this week
- Senate will need 60 votes to move bill
- What is Speaker Johnson’s future
- Secretary Blinken to China
On Saturday the House approved the package of bills that sends military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The House-approved bill contains $60B for Ukraine, $26B for Israel, and $8B for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region. Under the plan devised by Speaker Johnson there were four separate votes: one each for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and so-called side bar issues, the main part of which requires the sale of TikTok.
Obviously, the most important and controversial vote was on the Ukraine package. The final vote on Ukraine was 311YES to 112NO. All the NO votes came from Republicans. Under the leadership of President Biden and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries all Democrats voted in support of aiding Ukraine in its war with Russia. On aid to Israel the vote was 366 to 58. The NO votes against Israeli aid were 37Ds and 21Rs. As we have seen in other recent House votes the NO votes came from the most progressive Democrats and the most conservative Republicans. As I have written before, on some issues the political spectrum seems more like a circle than a line, with the right and left meeting at the top of the circle.
In a parliamentary move to expedite consideration by the Senate, the four House bills were added as a substitute amendment to the Senate passed bill and returned to the Upper Chamber. Senate Leader Schumer has announced that debate and votes on the House approved bill will begin on Tuesday. Leader Schumer and McConnell, who both support the bill, will line up votes to “invoke cloture” which is the procedure required to limit debate in the Senate and stop any threat of a filibuster. To invoke cloture requires 60 votes; however, since the original military supplemental bill for Ukraine and Israel passed the Senate in February on a vote of 70YES to 29NO it is expected that there will be more than 60 votes on the cloture motion.
Once cloture is invoked it limits the time that any one Senator can speak, making it likely that the package will pass and go to the White House sometime in the coming week. Officials have already been clear that aid is ready to flow once the President signs the legislation.
What’s the future for Speaker Johnson?
The House left town for a week long break after passing the Ukraine/Israel military supplemental package. Marjorie Taylor Green and a handful of other Republicans have vowed to force a vote to vacate the Office of Speaker upon the return of the House.
Traditionally, on Speaker selection, each side votes for their Leader to be Speaker. Hence, Republicans would vote for Johnson and Democrats for Jeffries; but as we saw with the long process to select Speaker McCarthy as well as the process that led to the ouster of McCarthy and the many votes to elect Johnson, Republicans are very divided on the issue of their leadership.
This vote may be different. President Biden and Leader Jeffries may encourage some House Democrats to vote for Johnson on the motion to vacate the Speaker’s Office. This would not be part of a grand deal for bipartisan leadership, but simple math that the House needs a Speaker, stable government needs a functional House, and Democrats believe Johnson “did the right thing” in getting the military supplemental across the finish line. We will see.
Blinken to China
The coming week, April 25-26, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will travel to China for a series of meetings in Shanghai and Beijing. The meetings will follow a recent series of discussion conducted between Chinese officials and Treasurer Secretary Yellen a few weeks ago.
This is part of an ongoing strategy by the Biden Administration to have a dialogue between the two global superpowers. Issues to be discussed are likely to include the Israel/Hamas War, Russian attack on Ukraine, and tensions in the Taiwan Straits.
Here is a link to the State Department announcement of the trip.
https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-trip-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china
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