Big week in DC: Powell testifies, Super Tuesday, State of the Union (SOTU), Shutdown
- Powell Congressional testimony Weds/Thurs
- CA and TX lead 15 states voting on Super Tuesday
- SOTU Thursday
- Next partial shutdown deadline Friday
It will be a busy week in politics and many headlines coming out of DC.
Tuesday is the biggest day on the Presidential primary calendar – Super Tuesday. Voters in 15 states will cast their votes in Republican Presidential primaries. Nearly a third of all delegates will be chosen with delegate-heavy states of Texas and California included. Former President Trump is likely to officially wrap up the nomination and become the presumptive nominee. Former Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley will have a moment of reckoning as the votes are counted Tuesday night.
President Biden, though unopposed, should officially reach the delegate count he needs to clinch the nomination. On Thursday he gets an official moment to grab the national spotlight as he gives the State of the Union Address to a joint session of Congress. It is likely to be a tense evening as the Republican majority will be listening to the President challenge them on issues ranging from money for Ukraine to the border and the bipartisan bill Trump and Republicans rejected. From my Capitol Hill days, I remember the SOTU as a moment of solemnity in US democracy as the entire government is assembled in one room to hear the address. But in recent years it has taken on some of the partisan tensions of the English Parliament with Members booing and heckling the President.
Adding to the tension of the President addressing a divided Congress will be the fact that the speech occurs on the eve of another government shutdown deadline.
On Sunday the bipartisan leadership of the House and Senate unveiled a package of spending bills for those departments that have a funding deadline this coming Friday at midnight. Last week Congress avoided a shutdown and continued with Speaker Johnson’s scheme of bifurcated government shutdown dates. The proposed legislation contains funds for housing, transportation, veterans, agriculture, and military construction. Both sides got provisions their members were demanding from Democratic programs for more food and housing assistance, to Republican cuts in EPA, the FBI, cuts in listings of endangered species, and protecting gun rights for veterans. The hope is to put the $450B package into one bill, a so-called minibus, and get it passed by midnight on Friday to avoid a partial government shutdown on Saturday.
The bigger deadline is March 22 when the larger departments of Defense and HHS reach their shutdown deadline. A handful of conservative Republicans are committed to adding policy amendments to the big spending bills, and at this point it is not clear if a bipartisan majority can prevail and pass the bills required to keep key government departments and programs up and running.
Powell testimony
On Wednesday and Thursday Fed Chair Powell goes to Capitol Hill to give his semiannual monetary policy testimony: Wednesday he will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and Thursday to the Senate Banking Committee. The Chair is likely to face tough questions from progressive Democrats who believe the time is past for the central bank to start cutting rates. One of Powell’s harshest critics, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, is likely to give the Chair a tough grilling on a Fed policy she believes is too restrictive. However, with the next FOMC meeting coming up on March 19/20 the Chair is unlikely to deviate from statements he has made in recent weeks that a cut in March in unlikely. Indeed, the minutes from the January meeting reflected several Committee members with hawkish views and a majority wanted to see more evidence of a pathway to 2% inflation before cuts start.
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