Old Santos seat
Tomorrow there will be an interesting special election in the 3rd Congressional district of New York for the seat of disgraced Representative George Santos. With a closely divided House each seat can have an impact on the narrow Republican Majority. Last week witnessed one of the consequences of the narrow majority. Speaker Mike Johnson led an effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas; the effort failed on a tie vote with several empty seats and Republican Leader Steve Scalise out due to treatment for cancer. A Republican victory on Tuesday in New York would assure Republicans the votes they need to impeach Mayorkas.
Like much of New York, the 3rd Congressional district had been reliably Democrat. In fact, in 2020 the President carried the district by 8 points–however, on the local level the County has a Republican Executive and the district voted Republican for Governor. Then in 2022 George Santos created a candidate with tales and lies that carried the day and he won. As the extent of his fabricated story came to light, the Representative was kicked out of the House, and this is the election to fill the seat.
The Democrats have nominated former Member Tom Suozzi who left Congress for an ill-fated run for Governor. Now he is trying to win his old seat back as a moderate Democrat. The Republicans have nominated a candidate with a different resume. Mazi Pilip is still a registered Democrat but is running as a Republican. She was born in Ethiopia, her family moved to Israel where she was raised as an Orthodox Jew, she served in the Israel Defense Force, and after moving to the USA became an American citizen in 2009. She has made the out-of-control situation at both the Southern border and the flow of immigrants into NYC a central issue.
Former Representative Suozzi is trying to make abortion a central issue, but with New York’s strong pro-choice laws it may be hard to catch traction with the issue that has been a winner for Democrats nationwide.
It will be a good test of key issues for both parties, and a win for either side will be hailed as a good start for the 2024 election cycle.
Aid to Ukraine and Israel
The Senate continues to work on the Supplemental Spending Bill that has military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and the Asia-Pacific region. The bill has been expanded in recent weeks to include humanitarian assistance.
A coalition of Democrats and Republicans held together over the weekend when the Senate voted yesterday–67 to 27 to move forward with the legislation. Some Republicans continue to demand money for the border even though Republicans walked away from the bipartisan border legislation that was proposed a week ago. Republicans recognize that the mess at the border is a good campaign issue for the Party.
If the bill passes the Senate later this week it will go to a precarious future in the House. The most conservative Republicans oppose the bill, and it is not clear what the Speaker will do. However, as there is likely a bipartisan majority in favor of the legislation there is some talk of moving the bill to the House floor with the seldom used “discharge petition.” Under this procedure a petition is literally put at the Speaker’s desk at the head of the House Chamber and Members come up and sign the petition. Once there are 218 Member signatures the Speaker must bring the bill to the floor for a vote. It seldom happens. The discharge process was famously used to get civil rights bills to the floor in the 1960s. Because of the slim margins and strong views, this may be one of the rare instances when a discharge petition is successfully used.
2024 Senate
In a surprising development, former Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan announced that he would run for Maryland’s vacant Senate seat. Hogan has been the exception to the rule winning statewide races in Maryland – a dependable Democratic State. Hogan’s entrance into the race puts into play this seat that was widely expected to be a Democratic hold. In coming weeks, I will be writing more about the race for control of the House and Senate. It is a very tough map for Senate Democrats, and this move by Hogan makes a flip to Republican control more likely.
