New all-time S&P 500 highs likely in January (if not Friday 12/29). However, 4 reasons we then see a pullback around Feb/March 2024. Small-caps likely lead in 1H24.

We discuss: To us, it is only a matter of days before we make new all-time highs.  But then we likely consolidate.  Small-caps likely outperform in 1H24.  We discuss the multiple reasons we expect large-caps to have a pullback in 1H24.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 4:10).

With 1 trading day left in 2023, the S&P 500 is on track to gain >25%. One might be surprised to learn this is only ranks as the 25th best year (yep) in the past 125 years. Consensus expected a far worse outcome (hard landing and inflation fighting for a decade). So, we are thankful to our clients who supported us through this challenging but ultimately rewarding year.

• The S&P 500 is now within 1% of the all-time high of 4.801 but has not yet exceeded this level. Since 1950, there are 11 instances where the S&P 500 fell 20% and then climbed to within 1% of its prior all-time high:
  – 11 of 11 times, the S&P 500 quickly made an all-time high
  – median time is 7 days and as long as 20 trading days, meaning new highs by Jan 2024
  – repeat, the market always soon made an all-time high
• Did markets then make further gains? The median max gain over the next 18 months is +22%. So yes, this is a launch point for further gains. There is only 1 instance, May 2007 that the max further gain was nominal (<5%). But the other 10 instances saw significant further gains. This makes sense to me. Reaching an all-time high is a significant market milestone. And stocks do not suddenly reverse from there.
• But there is a wrinkle. 7 of 11 times, markets first consolidated with a drawdown. These are modest with overall declines from this 1% level being 2% to 5%. In the current context, we could see S&P 500 4,400-4,500 once we make all-time highs, or a modest pullback.
• This is consistent with our 2024 Year Ahead Outlook, where our base case is the S&P 500 makes most of its gains in 2H2024. Here are some potential reasons:
  – markets get “itchy” waiting for Fed to cut, while Fed itself uncertain
  – AI timeline could be pushed out due to a “systematic hack” by malevolent AI
  – equity markets need to consolidate the parabolic gains from late 2023
  – a drawdown in Feb/March timeframe is consistent with election year seasonal returns
• On this last point, take a look at the chart below, and we see a pronounced downturn historically around the Feb/March timeframe. Why this happens is not entirely clear. But as noted above, there are multiple factors that suggest a consolidation/softness could happen in early 2024.

Bottom line: We think small-caps could rally throughout 2024, even if markets soft in 1H24

But a final note, we think small-caps could rally throughout this timeframe. After all, with falling interest rates, a dovish Fed, improving economic momentum, upturn in housing and we see a constellation of reasons for small-caps to rally.

• our favorite sector idea in 2024 is small-caps IWM 0.05%  which we believe could rally 50%
• our favorite large-cap sector is Financials XLF 0.60%  and we like regional banks KRE 0.85%  for SMID
• we like FAANG/Technology XLK -0.25%  QQQ -0.07%  because of good earnings visibility but rank this #3
• our #2 sector favorite is Industrials XLI 0.11%  which we see benefitting from the bottoming of PMIs and potential recovery in Europe/China.

Key incoming data January:

• 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final
• 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing
• 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November
• 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final
• 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report
• 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services
• 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final
• 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI
• 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI
• 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data
• 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month
• 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index
• 1/19 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
• 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim
• 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim
• 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP
• 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE
• 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey
• 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price
• 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December
• 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision

Key incoming data December

• 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November FinalTame 
• 12/01 10am ET November ISM ManufacturingStrong 
• 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November FinalStrong 
• 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings OctoberTame 
• 12/05 10am ET November ISM ServicesStrong 
• 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityStrong 
• 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November FinalTame 
• 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs ReportTame 
• 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December PrelimTame 
• 12/12 8:30am ET November CPITame 
• 12/13 8:30am ET November PPITame
• 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionDovish
• 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales DataTame
• 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
• 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December PrelimTame
• 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
• 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-MonthTame
• 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDPMixed
• 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyMixed
• 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
• 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December FinalTame
• 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
• 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November

• 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October FinalTame 
• 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings SeptemberMixed
• 11/01 10am ET October ISM ManufacturingTame
• 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press ConferenceTame
• 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionDovish
• 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm ProductivityTame
• 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
• 11/03 10am ET October ISM ServicesMixed
• 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October FinalTame
• 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey Resilient
• 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales DataResilient
• 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
• 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-MonthTame
• 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
• 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
• 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDPStrong
• 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige BookTame
• 11/30 8:30am ET October PCETame

Key incoming data October

•  10/2 10am ET September ISM ManufacturingTame
•  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings AugustHot
•  10/4 10am ET September ISM ServicesTame
•  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs ReportMixed
•  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September FinalTame
• 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation ExpectationsMixed
•  10/11 8:30am ET September PPIMixed
•  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
•  10/12 8:30am ET September CPIMixed
•  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflationMixed
•  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
•  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
• 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales DataHot
•  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame
•  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing StartsTame
• 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige BookTame
•  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
• 10/19 10am ET Existing Home SalesTame
• 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
•  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October PrelimTame
•  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP AdvanceStrong
•  10/27 8:30am ET September PCETame
•  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectationTame
•  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost IndexMixed
•  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home priceMixed
•  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame

Key incoming data September

•  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs ReportTame
•  9/1 10am ET August ISM ManufacturingTame
•  9/6 10am ET August ISM ServicesMixed
•  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige BookTame
•  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August FinalTame
•  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds ReportTame
•   9/13 8:30am ET August CPIMixed
•  9/14 8:30am ET August PPITame
•  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
•  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflationTame
•  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
•  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
•  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexMixed
•  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decisionMarket saw Hawkish
•  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyMixed
•  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
•  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
•  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
•  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August

• 8/1 10am ET July ISM ManufacturingTame
• 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings JunTame
• 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment ReportHot
• 8/3 10am ET July ISM ServicesTame
• 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs reportTame
• 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July FinalTame
• 8/10 8:30am ET July CPITame
• 8/11 8:30am ET July PPITame
• 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker JulyTame
• 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing SurveyMixed 
• 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral
• 8/16 2pm ET FOMC MinutesMixed 
• 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyPositive
• 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame
• 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug PrelimWeak
• 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflationMixed
• 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
• 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTSTame
• 8/31 8:30am ET July PCETame

Key incoming data July

• 7/3 10am ET June ISM ManufacturingTame
• 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 7/6 10am ET June ISM ServicesTame
• 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTSTame
• 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs reportMixed
• 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June FinalTame
• 7/12 8:30am ET June CPITame
• 7/13 8:30am ET June PPITame
• 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker JuneTame
• 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflationMixed
• 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line
• 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame
• 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
• 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decisionTame
• 7/28 8:30am ET June PCE Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost Index Tame
• 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from June

• 6/1 10am ET May ISM ManufacturingTame
• 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs reportTame
• 6/5 10am ET May ISM ServicesTame
• 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index MayTame
• 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker AprilTame
• 6/13 8:30am ET May CPITame
• 6/14 8:30am ET May PPITame
• 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame
• 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflationTame
• 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
• 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 6/30 8:30am ET May PCETame
• 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame

Key data from May

• 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up)Positive inflection
• 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTSSofter than consensus
• 5/3 10am ET April ISM ServicesTame
• 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decisionDovish
• 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs reportTame
• 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index AprilTame
• 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion SurveyBetter than feared
• 5/10 8:30am ET April CPITame
• 5/11 8:30am ET April PPITame
• 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutesDovish
• 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
• 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings

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