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US Equities and Treasuries technically look to be near resistance, while the US Dollar index has begun to rally.  A majority of the major sectors are also now right near meaningful intermediate-term downtrends.  Until we can see proof of downtrends being convincingly broken across the board, I still view current levels as being a poor risk/reward for new investments without consolidation.   Near-term cycles still point to possible consolidation ahead of 12/22 before a year-end rally.  This should be led by a bounce in Yields and the US Dollar.

As discussed last week, Treasury yields look to be starting to turn back higher, and I suspect the CPI report might prove to be the catalyst for TNX getting back over 4.30%.  If this happens Tuesday, then a sharper rally in yields should commence with initial upside yield targets near 4.55%, then 4.65-4.75%.  This would likely prevent stocks from making too much further headway given recent correlation trends.  However,  Yields have indeed risen over the last few trading days and stocks thus far have not been affected.

Overall, the breakout in groups like Semiconductor sector ETF’s along with SPX and QQQ can’t be ignored and is...

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