INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor risk-on into YE, as we noted last night. Cancelling "zig-zag" call until 12/13

INTRADAY ALERT:  Probabilities favor risk-on into YE, as we noted last night.  Cancelling zig-zag call until 12/13
INTRADAY ALERT:  Probabilities favor risk-on into YE, as we noted last night.  Cancelling zig-zag call until 12/13

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We have been watching the S&P 500 close on 12/5, as this was the “Day 3” and being above 4,567.80 was important. Instead, the S&P 500 close was just a tad lower at 4,567.18. This is not ideal, but for several other reasons, we believe we have entered a “risk-on” period for stocks into YE.

  • Originally, we expected “zig zag” until 12/13 Dec FOMC meeting. But now, we believe there is less “zig-zag” until 12/13 and instead, equity markets will generally rise from here.
  • Foremost, the soft JOLTS yesterday tells me the underlying momentum in the labor market is soft. This is affirmed by today’s ADP Nov jobs report which showed 103k vs 130k expected. And the softness was in travel jobs, which is where we have seen some inflationary pressures.
  • This means the market could rally Friday, even if we get a strong Nov employment report. Why? I think the details favor a soft wage (avg hourly earnings) or even a rise in labor supply. We had said that there is upside risk to Nov jobs report of +187k due to workers returning from strike and seasonal hiring plus better weather. But now, we see this having less “downside zag” to stock prices.
  • Finally, see the lower table. There are:
    – 5 instances where “first 3 days down” (after Nov >5%)
    – 4 of 5 were down day 4 to YE, or 80%
    – the sole positive instance was 1998, which was the “least down first 3 days”
    – day 4 to YE was +6.9%
  • Is this 1998 again? If this is 1998, that would be >300 point rally into YE, or S&P 500 at 4,850-4,900. That is a tall order.
  • But you get the idea

We are cancelling our “zig-zag” call. Risk-on probabilities higher.

INTRADAY ALERT:  Probabilities favor risk-on into YE, as we noted last night.  Cancelling zig-zag call until 12/13
Source: Fundstrat

INTRADAY ALERT:  Probabilities favor risk-on into YE, as we noted last night.  Cancelling zig-zag call until 12/13
Source: Fundstrat

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INTRADAY ALERT:  Probabilities favor risk-on into YE, as we noted last night.  Cancelling zig-zag call until 12/13

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