Data this week strengthened pause case, while collapse in margin debt near dot-com trough. FAANG OW justified by AI TINA

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This was a big week for inflation data with both critical April CPI (5/10) and PPI (5/11) coming in softer (more favorable details.) In this "game of inches" market, we see this as incrementally favorable for those positive.

Foremost, 3 things happened this week that support the Fed's decision to "pause":- soft-ish core CPI readings, particularly given "hotter" component was used cars- core PPI came in at +0.2% (vs Street +0.3%) and food CPI now down to 2.5% YoY- forward indicators point to future softness including Manheim April cars down -4%- and AAA gasoline now down $0.20 from mid-April highs Food has been one of the stickier CPI components still at +7.7% YoY in the latest CPI report. Yet, Food PPI is down to a mere 2.5%. I mean, isn't this a yawing gap? Obviously, great for profit margins, but also perhaps a sign that food inflation is set to cool sharply. This is similar to 2015-2017 period and as shown below, you get the picture, food is deflating. On balance, we think this lends more fundamental credibility to the Fed "pause" -- that is, skeptics might have argued last week the "pause" was solely due to regional bank stress, but this week's data supports the idea current policy...

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