COVID-19 UPDATE (ELECTION EDITION): Election night -- betting markets flip to Trump. Cyclical portfolio for Biden (23 stocks) vs Trump (27 stocks). New study affirms T-cell immunity

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

STRATEGY: Cyclical trade: Trump vs Biden portfolios.  Trump favored
The focus of this note is the 2020 Election results.  We will be sending this note without having any conclusions on the winner of the White House and the outcome for the Senate.  Polls and the media have been calling for a Biden/Blue wave landslide.  And early voting results so far, are not really showing this.  

In fact, betting markets have completely flipped with Trump favored at 69.5%.  

- Equity futures are up and NASDAQ >3%
- We think strongest rally would be a "surprise" Trump win and equities rally 15%-17% into YE
- This looks like the scenario at the moment

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: electionbettingodds.comTo me, the biggest takeaway is the massive, absolutely massive failure of polling.  This is a big money business and is used to influence behavior and financial markets.  And these polls have been dead wrong again -- an indictment of polling.  Our Washington Strategist, Tom Block, has not trusted polls in the world of cell phones (geolocation) and social media.  How can all these "live polls" get 1,500 results per week?  This implies 33% US contacted during a 33-week election cy...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)