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While there has been some “hotter” inflationary economic data lately, it is too easy and tempting for the inflation-istas to jump on this and think inflation is surging ahead. 

But the Fed is data dependent and not “data reactive” and unless the core drivers of inflation are roaring ahead—energy, housing and wages—the Fed is set to raise rates, but in a predictable path. This is what drives lower volatility and that is what allows multiples to expand this year. 

Our base case remains equities gain strongly in 2023, and the breadth expansion is supportive of this. As we noted in the past, there was a trifecta of factors on 1/12/2023 that have only been seen at major turning points in markets and this confirms our view that Oct 12, 2022 was the major low. 

But we need to respect seasonals as well and as shown below, we think 2/16-3/7 remains a period where markets could stall. Below is a composite of the 7 precedent years where markets gained >1.4% on the “rule of 1st 5 days”

just a rough sketch but highlights that equities are probably going to need to...

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