Powell could tilt hawkish this coming week, but larger narrative is Fed "disinflation" is a massive course correction. Strong Jan equity returns borrowing from Feb, but dip buying still makes sense.

The January jobs report was strong = Fed wary, but also means US not in recession = good

The strong January jobs report (+517k vs 188k expected), along with strong JOLTS (aka job openings) and Fed Daly's comments (hawkish), was overall too "hawkish"-ly tilted for equities, and thus, the sell-off on Friday.

  • the strong jobs was a too much of a good thing as it risks an escalation of Fed
  • this naturally raises the potential for Powell to tilt more hawkish this coming Tuesday when he speaks in Washington.
  • but at the same time, this counters the economic gloom. The US economy is in very good shape currently
  • this is arguably a data point for the notion of falling inflation taking place without needing a recession.
  • furthermore, JPMorgan's Michael Feroli, Chief US economist, Jan jobs might be a sign of "job hoarding" not strong job demand. Why? Because jobs are usually lost in Jan but it is the "seasonal adjustment" that makes it a positive month. We discuss below.
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Is the Jan jobs report thesis-changing? In our view, no.

I don't view this as ending the progress of markets in January. Here is a rundown of our take on 2023 so far.

Inflation peaked in October and has been falling rapidly since aka "disinflation"Fed made an "unforced error" in Dec...

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