Stocks Continue Strong Start to 2023

Good evening:

“After a stock market decline, people may perceive more risk than before when, in fact, the decline may have taken some of the risks out of the market.” – Robert Shiller

Twenty-six percent of S&P 500 market cap reported this week, and the results were largely better than expected, punctuated by Tesla’s record-setting revenue and profit. After a tumultuous close to 2022, stocks have risen in three of the past four weeks on the belief that inflation is easing enough for the Fed to begin slowing the pace of interest rate increases. Whether this is another classic bear market rally or a new bull run remains to be seen, but the S&P 500’s 6.44% gain this year has some investors wondering if the worst is already behind us.

In short, the market is sending many mixed signals between solid earnings, forecasts of economic slowdown, and stronger-than-expected GDP growth. 

That was the core of our weekly research meeting. Here are the highlights:

Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, said markets remain resilient, led by sectors that lagged last year: discretionary, communication services, and technology. (The latter is a top pick by Tom Lee and Newton for 2023.) Most of Newton’s work is constructive, showing the market should turn sha...