Inflation is having its "Volcker moment" as 34% of CPI (by weight) in deflation, the same point in Oct '82. As for "cash is a great alternative," S&P 500 in 10 days exceeds 4% return of cash, "cash"-ites have to wait another 355 days to match the return of stocks.

MACRO CATALYST WATCH: Wednesday

8:30am ET: Dec PPI (Producers Price Index) Core Street +0.1% MoM (was +0.4% last month)

  • PPI Core (ex-food and ex-Energy) should show same type of continual improvement seen in CPI.
  • If Dec is +0.1% or so, this takes 3M annualized to 2.39%, down from 2.69% last month. In our view, another data point showing inflation trajectory slowing sharply.
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YTD S&P 500 ~4% means the "cash is a great alternative"-ites need to wait another 355 days

The S&P 500 is up 4% YTD, meaning in the first 10 trading sessions, equities have exceeded the annual expected return of bonds (3.5%) and cash (~4%). Meaning those who say "cash is a great alternative" have to wait another 355 days to match the return of stocks. Stocks have posted a solid start to 2023, and many investors view this warily.

Fed made an "unforced error" in December -- which is the setup for a >20% rally in 2023

But what if investors are supposed to respect this rally (our view). Is there a rationale/narrative that justifies this? Yes, here is a perspective aligned with stocks gaining YTD:

Inflation visibly peaked in October (first CPI to show demonstrable declines)Since October, inflation has taken several legs down and is now effectively ru...

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