Inflation risks still greater to the downside. The low response rate of JOLTS (31% down from 44% in 2021) argues JOLTS might be overstating labor market strength. Thus, risk/reward still favorable into YE.

We are continuing our visit with clients in Japan. The overall mood of investors remains cautious for understandable reasons. They don't want to fight the Fed and they remain concerned that stocks have not discounted the expected decline in 2023 earnings.

  • Earnings contraction remains a consensus bearish argument.
  • The 2023 outlooks from Wall Street make this same argument as highlighted from BCA below, and similar views from others. Consensus sees stocks bottoming in 1Q2023 or so to 3,000-3,200 on contraction in earnings.
  • But the consensus expected decline in earnings is not guaranteed. The USD rose ~20% in 2022 subtracting ~8% from EPS and this becomes a tailwind in 2023 if USD softens -- will it add +5% in 2023?
  • And companies have been managing costs in 2022 as plunging CEO confidence triggered caution. We previously highlighted the plunge in CEO confidence is the fastest ever and like 2016 and 2018 triggered by monetary policy, not business conditions.
  • And the overwhelming driver of Fed policy and market views is inflation. While investors think inflation remains sticky, the soft Oct CPI argues it is falling quickly. And in coming 5-7 days, we get two critical Nov inflation reports for PPI and CPI and we think those will be repeatably soft.
  • Inflationary pressures are fading quickly, evidenced by gasoline round tripping to start of 2022. The easing of supply chains. Even housing cooling rapidly. And the only sticky component might be labor markets.
  • But is it possible that JOLTS is overstating the tightness of jobs markets? Our data science team highlights that key economic reports like JOLTS and labor reports are being made with a plunging response rate by companies. The most recent JOLTS only had a 31% response rate down from 44% in 2021 and 68% in 2012. It is during this time that openings exploded to 12 million from 7 million. But this seems to be less reliable, no?
  • Taking the combined of the above, we think there remains greater downside risk to inflation and labor markets (JOLTS is arguably overstating the tightness of labor, see below). Thus, Fed could change its views regarding the path of rates. And therefore markets would change their positioning.
  • These are all probabilities, of course, but that is where we differ from consensus. And if this comes down to inflation, this makes a comparison to 1982 relevant.
  • Stocks bottomed in August 1982, two months before Fed Chair Volcker considered "ending the war on inflation." In the 3 months from the August low, stocks rose 40% and recovered the entire 27 month bear market. And stocks bottomed two months before the Fed considered ending the inflation war.
  • And we don't think the end of the inflation war in 2022 is the Fed cutting rates. It is when Fed and markets see sufficient progress in inflation to remove the upside risks to higher rates. We think this could happen as early as the November CPI report. This will be released on 12/13.
checkout-thomas-lee image
checkout-logo image

Become a Member To Access FS Insight Research

FS Insight gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.

Monthly

$199/mo

Includes 30-Day Free Trial

Join Now

Annual

-15% $2,028/yr

List Price: $2,388

Savings: $360

Join Now

What's included in your FSI Membership?

tom lee iamge

Thomas J. Lee

Head of Research

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports First Word
The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.
Intraday Alerts
These are released periodically after crucial market developments.
Real-Time
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Webinars & Videos Macro Minute Video
Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events.
Outlook Webinars
We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
Yearly
Granny Shots Webinars
CEO Interview Webinars Quarterly
Appearances Archive Real-Time
Allocation Tools "Super Granny" Shots Stock List
Granny Shots we expect to tactically outperform and underperform.
Granny Shots Stock List
Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.
Sector Allocation
A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.
Market Alerts ⚡️FlashInsights
Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
Real-Time
tom lee iamge

Mark L. Newton

Head of Technical Strategy

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports Daily Technical Strategy
Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Webinars & Videos Daily Technical Strategy
Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
Live Technical Analysis
Outlook Webinars
We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
Yearly
Appearances Archive Real-Time
Allocation Tools Newton's Upticks Stock List
Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500.
Market Alerts ⚡️FlashInsights
Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
tom lee iamge

L. Thomas Block

Washington Policy Strategy

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports US Policy
Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Market Alerts ⚡️FlashInsights
Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
Real-Time
sean farrell Crypto Team

Sean Farrell & Crypto Team

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports Market Update
Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.
Weekly Strategy
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Funding Fridays
Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!
Crypto Concepts
We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem.
Liquid Ventures
A recurring research note focused on delivering unique insights into high-risk investment opportunities within the crypto ecosystem, primarily centered on early-stage or small-cap tokens.
Deep Research
We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem.
Quarterly
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Webinars & Videos Outlook Webinars
Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.
Yearly
Crypto Comments Daily Technical Strategy
From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.
Allocation Tools Crypto Core Strategy
A powerful tool designed to help crypto investors build a crypto portfolio that outperforms the industry’s king – bitcoin – regardless of market conditions.
Market Alerts ⚡️FlashInsights
Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
Real-Time
Crypto Team

FS Insight Research Team

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports First to Market
*Earnings Daily
This note provides investors with a myriad of useful metrics to measure the progress of earnings season
Signal From Noise
Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.
Community Questions
We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
FS Insight Academy
Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
Webinars & Videos Free Macro Webinars
Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders.
Quarterly
Free Crypto Webinars
Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders.
Quarterly

*Daily reporting during each quarterly earnings season.

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You are reading the last free article for this month.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free

Trending tickers in our research

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You are reading the last free article for this month.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Already have an account? Sign In