Inflation risks still greater to the downside. The low response rate of JOLTS (31% down from 44% in 2021) argues JOLTS might be overstating labor market strength. Thus, risk/reward still favorable into YE. Array ( [cookie] => 38bc7a-aa3424-337639-f96d2b-e9393b [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 207711 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
We are continuing our visit with clients in Japan. The overall mood of investors remains cautious for understandable reasons. They don't want to fight the Fed and they remain concerned that stocks have not discounted the expected decline in 2023 earnings.
- Earnings contraction remains a consensus bearish argument.
- The 2023 outlooks from Wall Street make this same argument as highlighted from BCA below, and similar views from others. Consensus sees stocks bottoming in 1Q2023 or so to 3,000-3,200 on contraction in earnings.
- But the consensus expected decline in earnings is not guaranteed. The USD rose ~20% in 2022 subtracting ~8% from EPS and this becomes a tailwind in 2023 if USD softens -- will it add +5% in 2023?
- And companies have been managing costs in 2022 as plunging CEO confidence triggered caution. We previously highlighted the plunge in CEO confidence is the fastest ever and like 2016 and 2018 triggered by monetary policy, not business conditions.
- And the overwhelming driver of Fed policy and market views is inflation. While investors think inflation remains sticky, the soft Oct CPI argues it is falling quickly. And in coming 5-7 days, we get two critical Nov inflation reports for PPI and CPI and we think those will be repeatably soft.
- Inflationary pressures are fading quickly, evidenced by gasoline round tripping to start of 2022. The easing of supply chains. Even housing cooling rapidly. And the only sticky component might be labor markets.
- But is it possible that JOLTS is overstating the tightness of jobs markets? Our data science team highlights that key economic reports like JOLTS and labor reports are being made with a plunging response rate by companies. The most recent JOLTS only had a 31% response rate down from 44% in 2021 and 68% in 2012. It is during this time that openings exploded to 12 million from 7 million. But this seems to be less reliable, no?
- Taking the combined of the above, we think there remains greater downside risk to inflation and labor markets (JOLTS is arguably overstating the tightness of labor, see below). Thus, Fed could change its views regarding the path of rates. And therefore markets would change their positioning.
- These are all probabilities, of course, but that is where we differ from consensus. And if this comes down to inflation, this makes a comparison to 1982 relevant.
- Stocks bottomed in August 1982, two months before Fed Chair Volcker considered "ending the war on inflation." In the 3 months from the August low, stocks rose 40% and recovered the entire 27 month bear market. And stocks bottomed two months before the Fed considered ending the inflation war.
- And we don't think the end of the inflation war in 2022 is the Fed cutting rates. It is when Fed and markets see sufficient progress in inflation to remove the upside risks to higher rates. We think this could happen as early as the November CPI report. This will be released on 12/13.


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