Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the November FOMC meeting.  At the time of the meeting the Committee released a rather dovish statement that was followed by a more hawkish Chair press conference.  At the time I cautioned that, while hawkish, the Chair made clear that a step down from the 75bps increases was possible at the December meeting. The minutes made clear that there was indeed a consensus among FOMC members that economic conditions make a stepdown in rate increases very much on the table for the next meeting.  Here’s a quote from the minutes:

       “Nonetheless, contacts were increasingly focused on the question of when the Committee

         might slow the pace of future increases in light of the substantial tightening of financial

         conditions that had occurred over the year. Most respondents to the Open Market Desk's

         surveys viewed a 50 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at the

         December meeting as the most likely outcome.”

Here's a link to the full minutes....

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