Technology downturn is not encouraging; Volatility looks possible into 11/10-15

The chart in this report is only accessible to members
The chart in this report is only accessible to members
The chart in this report is only accessible to members

Increasingly it’s looking like Wednesday’s abrupt reversal could lead to a greater amount of volatility in the short run ahead of November’s all-important CPI report and mid-term elections. While rates seem to be close to peaking out, which would coincide with Equities bottoming, uptrends were broken from mid-October, and Technology is turning down more quickly than is comfortable.  The real question is whether Equity markets start to respect the 10- or 20-year cycle more than the 60-year.  This could allow for weakness into mid-month, which has been a predictable cycle for SPX with mid-month turns having happened over the last six months (See Circles below). Overall, near-term lows could materialize Friday between 3650-3700.  However, bounces that barely recoup 3800 and then violate 3650 would result in new lows for 2022, which cannot be ruled out now given Technology weakness.  Bottom line, it’s important for yields to reverse quickly given the degree of negative correlation with equities.  

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Technology is nearing Make-or-Break levels

While sentiment, seasonality and cycles typically are quite positive during this time of year, it’s important to take note that Technology has turned down abnormally...
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