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Crude oil looks close to bottoming while USDJPY is nearing a peak

$SPX has now declined 7 of the last 9 weeks, and while a larger rebound does lie ahead, the near-term remains tricky and volatile.   Looking at Friday’s action, the sudden about-face doesn’t completely negate the positives of Thursday’s sharp rebound, but it’s vital that SPX hold above 3577 into next week. Below that level argues for a full retest and partial break of this week’s lows, which should take SPX down to 3450-3475 before a rebound back to 3800 gets underway.  Overall, picking spots to buy dips in this decline has proven rather precarious, as the extent of the decline in recent weeks has not yielded much if any real stabilization. 

Thus, rallies are being quickly given back, but yet as hourly SP500 Futures charts show below, prices remain at/near late September lows and as I’ve discussed, the broader market has held its gains better than Technology and the price action in $QQQ might suggest.  Into next week, this volatile 200-point SPX range will be key to keep on the front burner.  Movement back over 3712 would lead to 3800-50, while any violation of 3570 likely brings 3450 into view.  However, I’m still of the opinion that rates and US Dollar are close to peaking, and that should serve as the technical catalyst for a push back into Technology and into Growth.

Dollar/Yen looks very close to peaking out

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