5 thoughts ahead of August CPI (9/13) = inflation cooling, potentially falling like a rock

The most important event this week, in our view, will be August CPI (9/13). Hopefully (we expect) this will show that inflation in the US indeed peaked in June 2022:

consensus looking for -0.1% MoM (or -1.2% annualized) and core +0.3% (+3.6% annualized)the unknown remains the pace at which inflation will declineconsensus and even Fed generally view this as "gradual" and thus, expect policy to remain tight for longerbut as our analysis has shown, inflation, once it peak, tends to "fall like ...

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