Cycles point higher until September Array ( [cookie] => 9df37c-433016-11733a-17f6a2-ccbd4d [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 1 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 106570 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Markets have increasingly turned a bit defensive in the short run yet have signaled no real ability to make even a new two-day low close. Until there is at least some evidence of the uptrend from either July or June being broken, it pays not to try to fade this rally. Furthermore, market bears will have to increasingly lean on factors like cycles, sentiment and structural deterioration to pave the way for even a minor pullback, vs. expecting that fundamental data will pave the way. Importantly, cycle composites from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles show near-term SPX trends pushing up into September, not dissimilar from the Gann Mass Pressure index I’ve discussed in the past. The combination of upward sloping cycles along with DeMark exhaustion tools still being early to signal a peak (based on both daily and weekly analysis) makes me skeptical that any near-term pullback lasts all that long before a continued grind higher to 4350-60 or above that level to near 4400. Once breadth starts to deteriorate and some evidence of weakness holding by the close is present, it will be right to expect the start of some weakness. At present, it’s expected that markets will still push up until late August at the earliest.
As this cycle composite shows for SPX above, cycles turn down in September into October before a year-end rally. This composite gels with the studies from the Mass Pressure index, which show a possible peak in price in mid-September, turning down into early October before a sharp rebound. Given that these cycles have worked so well thus far in 2022, it pays to give them some credence as to likely provide a lot of value over the last few months of 2022.
DeMark counter-trend analysis seems to focus on late August/early September for a possible Stalling out


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