2022 bear market 164 days = 25% of preceding bull. Median bear (since 1942) = 21% = Odds bottom in high = Buy the dip regime intact

The July CPI report is released today (8/10) at 8:30am ET and while we do not know if this report will be hotter than consensus, there will be some things to watch in this "hard" inflation report:

  • headline CPI will fall below "core CPI" driven by falling gasoline
  • headline CPI of +0.27% (per Cleveland Fed nowcast) is lowest reading in all of 2022
  • leading indicators of inflation, such as gasoline, travel-data, commodities, suggest "hard" data is way above real-time inflation
  • July gasoline likely subtracted -38 bps in July CPI
  • August gasoline could subtract -81 bps in August or 2.5X impact
  • gasoline could fall to $3.54 by end of August

So, even if there is an ugly July CPI figure, we think any sell-off will be short-lived. Recall, there are many warning some components of CPI remain elevated:

  • used cars/new cars (see discussion below)
  • shelter/rent is still rising
  • higher energy still working its way through pass-on pricing
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Gasoline to subtract -38 bps from headline CPI in July...

CPI month-over-month is cooling because a big swing in gasoline as mentioned above. Gasoline prices have not yet caught up to the fall in gasoline futures because of the predictable lags.

in late June, our data science team forecasted the path of July gasoline (see...

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