After July FOMC, entire yield curve will be at or above "neutral rate" = optionality = 2H rally view intact

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A big data week is ahead, with 3 major data incoming:

  • 7/27 is July FOMC --> +75bp is base case and few surprises expected
  • 7/28 2Q GDP --> investors expecting negative print given GDPNOW by Atlanta Fed
  • 7/29 Core June PCE --> main event arguably given inflation is focus. +0.9% consensus

Extra credit and still important:

  • 7/25 Case Shiller May home price --> +20.6% consensus
  • 7/29 U Mich June Final --> biggie is 5-10 yr inflation +2.8% and downside would be positive

Clearly, this is a big incoming data week. Of these inflationary data points are the most consequential:

  • inflation and inflationary expectations remain mysterious
  • and thus, hardest to predict
  • even as leading indicators point downwards, when this appears in "hard data" remains unclear
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Market is really weighing 3 outcomes

In my view, equities and markets broadly are weighing 3 intersecting factors:

  • how aggressive will Fed be? and do they quash all rallies?
  • recession risk as economic momentum slows
  • pace of disinflation as energy, food, housing all show signs of cooling
The headline from Marketwatch.com speaks to the biggest concern amo...

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