Updating Granny Shots. Is June the last "really bad" CPI, enabling Fed reaction function shift from "expeditious" to "measured"

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  • Granny Shots July Quarterly rebalance today
  • see below for adds and deletes

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Could June CPI be last "really bad" report?

The story for much of 2022 has been that of markets and Fed trying to keep up with surging inflation. And as the chart below simply illustrates, for much of 2022:

  • "hard data" (reported CPI) has been steadily rising
  • "leading indicators" such as commodities, surveys, alternative data showed inflationary pressures
  • hence, the Fed's reaction function had to be "expeditious"
  • meaning, moving Fed funds rates quickly higher to at least Neutral (2.5% per Fed)

This in turn has pressured markets. It did not matter to investors or risk assets whether inflationary pressures were structural or cyclically fueled by several factors. Inflation is mysterious and alternately explained by monetary policy, expectations or demand or supply.

as our clients are aware, we view inflationary pressures are less stickybecause supply chains along with the "bull whip" effectplus Russia-Ukraine war ("supply shock" plus "war risk")created complicated and lasting inflationary effectsbut tested the market's pati...

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