S&P 500 waterfall decline of 16% (5 mos) seen only 18 times since 1940 = signs closer to end of selloff

Fed policy is already “biting hard” after 3 hikes—on the margin, 3 more reasons inflation pressures might be peaking

Stocks continued their waterfall decline this past week, amplified by concerns of systemic risk as the crypto market took a gut punch. Many now believe a “hard landing” is baked in the cake — as Lawrence Summers, former Treasury Secretary told clients recently — whenever CPI is >4% and unemployment is <4%, there has never been anything but a hard landing.

  • Is it any wonder there is only despair?

In meeting after meeting, we see a great sense of despair, skepticism, cynicism, and anger towards equities. And many believe there is just no place to hide.

So please don’t label us as stubborn if we view the risk/reward for equities as having improved in the past week. Before rolling your eyes and saying we are oblivious, there are 4 reasons we see this:

a wave of layoffs is starting in tech world, which has been hardest hit by the higher cost of moneyhousing market, on the fringe, is showing signs of weakening due to higher rates and will accelerate if layoffs hitcore inflation, measured by core PCE, is running below 4% for each of the last 3 months = less pressure on Fedstock correlation has surged to 60%, according to RenMac, which ...

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