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Due to the importance of yesterday's FOMC, we are sending out the First Word today, instead of Friday. There will be a resend of today's note with updated COVID data tomorrow morning.

50bp did not end the world...

Equity markets rallied strongly following May FOMC. We will discuss our key takeaways (about market reaction) in the next section. But keep in mind, stocks have rallied post-FOMC in 5 of the 6 most recent FOMC decisions. So, we expect some positive follow-through over the next 10 days or so.

  • as extensively previewed Wed am, multiple datasets show investors were too hawkish and pessimistic into FOMC meeting
  • thus, we could perhaps see positive follow-through on the "stronger side"
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Key takeaways from FOMC meeting

This FOMC decision and press conference is, not surprisingly, one of the most important meetings in the past few years. And markets were clearly soothed by Powell. Here are our main takeaways:

Fed summoned its inner "Spiderman" and reminded markets that monetary policy is a blunt instrument75bp not "actively discussed" amidst signs of peaking inflationTightening financial conditions doesn't mean stock market needs to breakBond market has already d...

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