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Prone to panic in 2022, the market now is convinced that the Fed "gonna break" the market

If someone asked us to explain the primary difference in our relatively more sanguine view of the world versus consensus, it is really the difference between "fighting the Fed" and "counter-trading the panic." In many recent reports, we highlight (and continue to do so) how the bond market is doing a lot of the work for the Fed:

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...we are less panicked because Bond market doing work for Fed

An example of how markets panic sooner than previously, take a look at the yield on the 10-year and compare it to Fed Funds rate. This is since 2005, or the last 3 cycles:

  • in 2004-2006, Fed raised FF from 1.0% to 5.25%
  • 10-year initially fell 80bp from 4.9% and only rose 30bp to 5.2%
  • Fed raised FF +4.25%, but bond market only +0.3%. Hardly reacted

  • in 2016-2018, Fed funds rose +1.75% from 25bp to 2.25%
  • 10-yr initially fell 90bp to 1.4% and then rose to 3.2%, +0.90bp
  • FF +2.25% but yields only +0.9%, hardly reacted

  • in 2022, Fed funds raised +25bp from 0.25% to 0.50%
  • 10-yr surges from 1.7% to 3.0%, +1.30%
  • FF +25bp and yields surge 130bp.
See the difference? T...

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