STRATEGY: S&P 500 fell > 6% below its 200D and closed > 200D = 31 times since WWII = bullish signal
US is the “best house” in a bad neighborhood
As markets complete 1Q2022, it has been a bloody and treacherous 90 days. The macro environment has become decidedly hostile, with visibility on outcomes only emerging 3-6 months from now. Meaning, markets are still facing the same headwinds for the few weeks. These are apparent but let me recap:

  • inflationary pressures are building
  • current wave is commodity driven and amplified by Russia-Ukraine war
  • Geopolitical risks remain high given the risk of Russia-Ukraine war expanding
  • interest rates have risen, raising concerns of excess leverage
  • Fed has gone into “full hawk” mode
  • China is dealing with a major COVID-19 wave and threatens further supply chain issues
  • yield curve has inverted

So, it is obvious that the macro environment is uncertain. Contrary to consensus views, FSInsight had warned of a treacherous 1H2022 in our 2022 outlook (published in December 2021), but this is actually tracking slightly worse than we expected.

Yet, in the face of this, the S&P 500 is down only 5% YTD. This is impressive resilience, especially after declining more than 16% peak to trough (intraday) at the worst. At the nadir, the S&...

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