Oil surges $9 to $130, but is 3% of consumer wallet, below 4.5%/6.5% in 2008/1980. $200 oil = 4%

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STRATEGY: Oil surges $9 to $130, but is 3% of consumer wallet, below 4.5%/6.5% in 2008/1980. $200 oil = 4%

Equity markets are still struggling to find equilibrium and footing given the Russia-Ukraine war and the associated spillover in commodities and economy. I had multiple conversations with portfolio managers over the past few days and the obvious issue is the substantial uncertainty in the continuing warfare and knock-on effects:

- oil and commodity prices given Russia's central role
- payment systems given Mastercard, Visa and American Express cut off Russia
- risk of escalation of war beyond the Ukraine border
- inflationary and economic impacts of these collectively

The caution by investors is greater than we expected, but given the threat of escalation both geographically and weapons-type, is understandable. In periods like this, looking at market technicals is helpful. Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, at Fundstrat notes the following:

- equities holding up remarkably well = positive surprise- S&P 500 key levels are: 3/1 low of 4,279 and 4,250- below 4,279 and test of 2/24 lows likely- buyable low ...

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