US 10-Year Yields breaking out, while precious metals roll over

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Key Takeaways

  • SPX momentum and trend remain bearish and bounces likely prove short-lived into next week before weakening which might test December 2021 lows.
  • Value outperformance continues over Growth.  Breakouts in Energy and Financials back to new all-time highs should lead strength in both groups to persist awhile longer
  • US 10-Year Yields have exceeded former October peaks, which should lead to further upside in yields particularly on the front end of the curve, while 30-year has stabilized

While Thursday attempted some mild stabilization after Wednesday’s downside volatility, it’s insightful to examine how Equal-weighted broad-based indices like Value Line Geometric Avg (1700 stocks) fared instead of only looking at the QQQ or SPX.   As discussed in recent months, broad-based gauges like Value Line had flattened out starting last May, giving a very different picture than SPX.  While prices did hold where they needed to in early December, the bounce filled its December gap but has now broken back down under prior swing highs from 12/8/21.  This was a major reason for why technically I believe support has been violated, and has far more to do with broader a...
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