COVID-19 UPDATE: US cases rise again to 33,213 (close to new highs) so "course correction" needed. Houston >51% new cases in TX, further aligning with BLM protests behind the surge. Array ( [cookie] => 173aaf-da1bbc-1f54b9-040222-4df555 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_pro [visitor_id] => 568007 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
COVID-19 cases are rising and Tuesday's 33,213 cases (+6,468 vs 1D ago) is a sizable jump and the 6 states with daily case counts are all reporting increases today and the daily tally is not far from the 4/20/2020 high of 35,754. This is certainly not a positive trend but while cases are near the prior high, daily hospitalizations (gross for the 33 states) is +1,139 (-77%) and daily deaths are 789 (-71%). So, the severity of these incremental cases is not the same as what was seen in April.
This raises many questions but the most important is the policy direction. Given the surge in COVID-19 cases, states and the US need to mitigate transmission -- aka, course correction. Below is an ad-hoc list of measures:
- Improve contact trace ("vogue" but failing in USA)
- Enforce social distance
- Isolate the vulnerable (Old and those with co-morbidity)
- Require masks (VERY UNPOPULAR)
- Require sanitization measures
- Close rogue establishments
- Monitor waste (fecal testing works, see our prior commentary)
- Close state borders
- Close international borders
- Rollback / Re-close the state (ABSOLUTELY LAST RESORT)
The last resort is likely to reinstate shelter at home. States continue to take enforcement measures. Texas on Tuesday imposed temporary 30-day shutdowns on 17 bars (see comment last week and below). And the best solution, probably, but also the most unpopular, is requiring usage of masks.
Causality is also important. The surge we are seeing aligns much better with the nationwide protests that have been ongoing for 3 weeks. Even in Texas (discussed below), the nucleus of that state's surge is Houston, accounting for >51% of new cases (22% of the population) and has seen a parabolic blast-off while Dallas, San Antonio and even Austin (lesser extent) have been largely flat. What has been happening in Houston? George Floyd is from the Third Ward in Houston and that ward was the site of the earliest protests. Even OpenTable shows a peculiar surge in reservations in that city (Mr. Floyd's funeral was this week).
Each of the protests involved tens of thousands of Americans in close proximity for hours, so it represented 10,000X super spreader events, akin to the Champions League even in Northern Italy (which flamed the Italy-Spain pandemic). If the protests are behind this surge, then different mitigation measures are required. In any case, it is important for states to take course correction. So, there is tons of rationale and logic behind Dr. Fauci's statement to Congress today that "the next few weeks are critical"
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-06-23/fauci-to-testify-at-a-fraught-time-for-us-pandemic-response
On the economy side, more signs of a "V" continue to emerge. Below is the latest from Chase credit card spending, which continues to march upwards.
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