It was a painful week, with equity markets down 5%. But a big pullback was overdue, given the extended and relentless rise. The natural question is whether this is the start of a broader sell-off.

If so, the one thing to be mindful of is: who needs to de-lever? There are still tons of cash on the sidelines and CFTC positioning data shows institutions are largely risk-off. Sentiment is still weak. The only constituents really bullish are Robinhood investors (Millennials), as retail broadly is bearish, particularly Baby Boomers. There is not a lot of de-leveraging that is needed. Plus, credit is holding up reasonably well and supports equity valuations.

The protest marches have fractured the coronavirus (COVID-19) recovery timeline. I would say that the COVID-19 outlook is mixed. Cases are up, but not in a parabolic, accelerating manner that could stem from the nationwide protests. This in itself is positive. But this disease remains difficult to understand and the future is uncertain. And cases are up.

POINT #1: The 7-day change in cases, which smooths out the day by day noise, shows a rise of +1,671 vs one week ago. There are many states with increased cases, but a lot of it is due to increased testing. And five states have higher case growth and hospitalizations (Arkan...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free