Entering October With A “Cluster Of Worries” But Stocks Are So Oversold That We See Reason For Upside

COVID-19 is moving to the northern US states… but overall trends positive
COVID-19 overall remains in retreat in the US, evidenced best by looking at the 7D delta chart below.  And aside from the distortions associated with Labor Day, we see that the delta in cases are consistently negative and thus, pointing to a decline in cases. 

– COVID-19 is impressively improving overall in the US
– and the mix effect of rising cases in the North vs falling in the South is still on balance declining overall
– this is good

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daily cases could slip under 100,000 per day next week
And on an aggregate basis, the case figures look ready to dip below 100,000 cases per day by sometime next week.  But there is a mix shift taking place:

– cases are declining in the South
– but flu season is starting across the US
– this generally leads to a rise in cases in northern states
– the state-level data is already showing this
– IHME forecasts that overall cases might start to creep up in mid-October due to this effect

So, this could prove to be a temporary reprieve.

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This chart shows the level of cases (per 1mm residents) and the redder the worse the case impact.  And as you can see:

– the states in the North are seeing the highest cases per cap...

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