COVID-19 UPDATE: USA daily cases rise to 22,610 (+2,868, +14.5%) as testing rises +16%. Interest burden of $3.6T stimulus plan --> $24 billion/year or 0.1% of GDP. Yup. It's almost "free" Array ( [cookie] => 7584e7-ae0e4f-6a2286-e059cf-305f08 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 591083 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.
There are widespread signs of a "return to normalcy" from stories of crowds in Indiana to 41% of homes sold in the past 4 weeks seeing bidding wars, to China reporting auto SAAR is back to pre-crisis levels. Of course, as restrictions, movement increases, and the risk of a wave of new infections is what keeps anyone wary. The future remains uncertain, and thus, we are not confident in saying a second wave cannot happen -- but the good news, there has yet to be a second wave in re-opened economies, either in Europe (16 nations) or the US (basically all 50 eased to some extent).
Financial markets have certainly moved far faster than the economic data has moved. This always happens at the trough of an economic cycle. And for those who rely on fundamental visibility to make investment decisions, the rise in stocks since mid-March would appear to be completely disconnected from reality. We have written about how this happens at every trough and 2009 had a similar lack of visibility from March to Nov 2009 (even Warren Buffet said he saw NO GREEN SHOOTS on June 24, 2009).
We remain in the half-full camp and believe stocks offer pretty good risk/reward, even here. In fact, because credit markets are functioning pretty well, we believe stocks will show the symmetry seen in the 10 declines >30% since 1929, with a move to "all-time highs" (ATH) in 2.5X it took the market to decline --> new highs by 3Q2020 or so.
One thing to keep in mind is that there is a mountain of "dry powder" both private and public capital. Granted, we understand "public" stimulus and Fed money is not the same as the "private" money market + private equity dry powder. But it is a dry powder, nonetheless. Take a look at the table below.
- Public sector "dry powder" is 43% GDP
- Private sector "dry powder" is 32% GDP
The total "dry powder" is 75% of GDP and about half is the private sector. I would say this is a ton of firepower. And a reason to not get too negative, even as the crisis is still troughing.
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Thomas J. Lee
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