COVID-19 UPDATE: USA daily cases rise to 22,610 (+2,868, +14.5%) as testing rises +16%. Interest burden of $3.6T stimulus plan --> $24 billion/year or 0.1% of GDP. Yup. It's almost "free"

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.


There are widespread signs of a "return to normalcy" from stories of crowds in Indiana to 41% of homes sold in the past 4 weeks seeing bidding wars, to China reporting auto SAAR is back to pre-crisis levels.  Of course, as restrictions, movement increases, and the risk of a wave of new infections is what keeps anyone wary.  The future remains uncertain, and thus, we are not confident in saying a second wave cannot happen -- but the good news, there has yet to be a second wave in re-opened economies, either in Europe (16 nations) or the US (basically all 50 eased to some extent).



Financial markets have certainly moved far faster than the economic data has moved. This always happens at the trough of an economic cycle.  And for those who rely on fundamental visibility to make investment decisions, the rise in stocks since mid-March would appear to be completely disconnected from reality.  We have written about how this happens at every trough and 2009 had a similar lack of visibility from March to Nov 2009 (even Warren Buffet said he saw NO GREEN SHOOTS on June 24, 2009).

We remain in the half-full camp and believe stocks offer pretty good risk/reward, even here.  In fact, because credit markets are functioning pretty well, we believe stocks will show the symmetry seen in the 10 declines >30% since 1929, with a move to "all-time highs" (ATH) in 2.5X it took the market to decline --> new highs by 3Q2020 or so.

One thing to keep in mind is that there is a mountain of "dry powder" both private and public capital.  Granted, we understand "public" stimulus and Fed money is not the same as the "private" money market + private equity dry powder.  But it is a dry powder, nonetheless. Take a look at the table below.

- Public sector "dry powder" is 43% GDP
- Private sector "dry powder" is 32% GDP

The total "dry powder" is 75% of GDP and about half is the private sector.  I would say this is a ton of firepower.  And a reason to not get too negative, even as the crisis is still troughing.

checkout-thomas-lee image
checkout-logo image

Become a Member To Access FS Insight Research

FS Insight gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.

Monthly

$199/mo

Includes 30-Day Free Trial

Join Now

Annual

-15% $2,028/yr

List Price: $2,388

Savings: $360

Join Now

What's included in your FSI Membership?

tom lee iamge

Thomas J. Lee

Head of Research

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports First Word
The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.
Intraday Alerts
These are released periodically after crucial market developments.
Real-Time
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Webinars & Videos Macro Minute Video
Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events.
Outlook Webinars
We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
Yearly
Granny Shots Webinars
CEO Interview Webinars Quarterly
Appearances Archive Real-Time
Allocation Tools "Super Granny" Shots Stock List
Granny Shots we expect to tactically outperform and underperform.
Granny Shots Stock List
Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.
Sector Allocation
A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.
Market Alerts ⚡️FlashInsights
Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
Real-Time
tom lee iamge

Mark L. Newton

Head of Technical Strategy

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports Daily Technical Strategy
Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Webinars & Videos Daily Technical Strategy
Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
Live Technical Analysis
Outlook Webinars
We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
Yearly
Appearances Archive Real-Time
Allocation Tools Newton's Upticks Stock List
Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500.
Market Alerts ⚡️FlashInsights
Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
tom lee iamge

L. Thomas Block

Washington Policy Strategy

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports US Policy
Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Market Alerts ⚡️FlashInsights
Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
Real-Time
sean farrell Crypto Team

Sean Farrell & Crypto Team

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports Market Update
Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.
Weekly Strategy
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Funding Fridays
Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!
Crypto Concepts
We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem.
Liquid Ventures
A recurring research note focused on delivering unique insights into high-risk investment opportunities within the crypto ecosystem, primarily centered on early-stage or small-cap tokens.
Deep Research
We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem.
Quarterly
Weekly Roadmap
Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
Webinars & Videos Outlook Webinars
Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.
Yearly
Crypto Comments Daily Technical Strategy
From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.
Allocation Tools Crypto Core Strategy
A powerful tool designed to help crypto investors build a crypto portfolio that outperforms the industry’s king – bitcoin – regardless of market conditions.
Market Alerts ⚡️FlashInsights
Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
Real-Time
Crypto Team

FS Insight Research Team

Type Publication Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Monthly
Reports First to Market
*Earnings Daily
This note provides investors with a myriad of useful metrics to measure the progress of earnings season
Signal From Noise
Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.
Community Questions
We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
FS Insight Academy
Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
Webinars & Videos Free Macro Webinars
Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders.
Quarterly
Free Crypto Webinars
Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders.
Quarterly

*Daily reporting during each quarterly earnings season.

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Sign in to read the report!

We have detected you are an active member!

Ray: 7584e7-ae0e4f-6a2286-e059cf-305f08

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free

Events

Trending tickers in our research