Bitcoin closes above 200D dma, triggering rule #3. Constructive outlook for crypto but pullbacks always happen Array ( [cookie] => 38bc7a-aa3424-337639-f96d2b-e9393b [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 207711 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Bitcoin closed above its 200-day moving average (dma) yesterday, triggering Rule #3 from our top 10 crypto rules. The implication is that Rule #3 is saying risk/reward for Bitcoin is favorable as Bitcoin sees a higher 6M win-rate when it moves above its 200dma (80% win-rate vs 36% below its 200dma).
We already have a confluence of positive tailwinds for Bitcoin in 2020, so this triggering of Rule #3 will be useful if Bitcoin pulls back in any meaningful way in the coming weeks. In fact, Rob Sluymer, Head of Technical Strategy, believes Bitcoin is due for a pullback as the daily RSI is way overbought.
But in the next month, we approach the block reward halvening, which is another positive dynamic for supply/demand.
Our takeaway? Bitcoin is up 22% YTD, making it the best performing asset in 2020, after tripling in 2019 (best performing asset in 2019).
And typical 6M forward returns is 193% after Bitcoin crosses above its 200dma. This is based on 10-yrs of history but the more recent 200dma crosses have been more mixed. Last year, the 200dma failed after Congress came after Facebook's Libra. If crypto doesn't face regulatory/Congressional backlash, there are better odds for a positive outcome.
The first 5 of 10 rules of Bitcoin....
The historical 6M forward returns of Bitcoin when above or below 200dma...


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