It is almost looking like Groundhog Day, Monday will maybe see a breakthrough on a bipartisan infrastructure bill.
This past week Senate Leader Chuck Schumer tried to break the apparent deadlock on a bipartisan infrastructure bill by having a vote on cloture, the parliamentary measure that forces a vote on Senate legislation. To be successful a cloture vote requires 60 votes, in today’s Senate that requires the support of all 50 Democratic Senators, and at least 10 Republican Senators. The cloture motion failed as not a single Republican supported the move. In fairness to the Republicans, they were being asked to move ahead with a bill that didn’t exist. The language in the motion was a so-called “place holder” to stand in for the eventual $1T infrastructure language. Republicans negotiating the deal asked for another vote next week with the assumption that legislative language will be in place.
The week comes to an end with both sides agreeing that there are a few areas where disagreement remains; but many more topics where a consensus exists. By most accounts the major unresolved issue focuses on how much money will go to public transit. Over the years money raised from the gas tax and other sources has been divided 80-20, 80% of the money going to highways and 20% going to public transit. With key Democrats from states such as New York and Illinois that have large public transit systems, a bipartisan program can’t shortchange transit.
As of Friday, both sides believe that Senator Schumer will try again to vote for cloture, starting a process that leads to a Senate vote, on Monday. Assuming that staff can finish writing the actual legislative text, at least 10 Republicans would vote for the effort and move the bipartisan measure forward.
It has been my view that if 10 Republicans agree to support the measure, and the bill maintains the support of all 50 Democrats, in the end more than 10 Republicans will support the legislation. Bringing money back to the state for highways, bridges and transit, and in this bill broadband and clean drinking water is a core part of a Senator’s job; and it’s hard to oppose with Mayors and Governors making the case for federal help.
The bill could still fall apart over the weekend. Republicans know it would be a big win for President Biden if he can deliver a large bipartisan accomplishment. However, Democrats do have a Plan B, to combine the traditional infrastructure with the human infrastructure in the Democrats only Budget Reconciliation Bill. This will require the support of all 50 Democratic Senators, but denies Republicans the ability to tell voters back home that they worked to bring money back to the state. Leaving Republicans out of the credit for big infrastructure programs in their home states may be a bigger political liability for Republicans than giving Joe Biden a legislative win.
As I said up top, it may seem like Groundhog Day; but next week could see a breakthrough vote on traditional infrastructure.
