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COVID-19 update. 58% of US sees case growth <10%. NYC case spread inverse to pop density based on zip codes

We realize there are many people interested in updates regarding COVID-19, so please feel free to send along this commentary to anyone who has interest.  


To start, we hope everyone had a Happy Easter.  The weekend has brought incrementally better news on the COVID-19 front, internationally, NYC/NY-state and nationwide as daily case growth shows widespread deceleration and even daily reported deaths are likely apexing.  State and local governments are extending the "stay at home" orders but with diminishing intensity of the crisis, we can start to track how local economies begin to ease restrictions.  

- The White House now expects total expected deaths from COVID-19 to be around ~60,000, down from 100,000-200,000 last than 10 days ago and significantly less than original forecasts as high as 2.2 million.  The IHME projection curves are plotted below (the IHME sent us the raw data).  And tireless Ken (our data scientist) was able to render these revised death forecasts.

- As of the latest Johns-Hopkins update, the US has recorded 22,115 deaths from COVID-19, so total deaths are still expected to triple over the next month.  

- The IHME data has been quite accurate on death forecasts, particularly for NY state, but in the US overall, we believe that the widespread social distance measures is causing the realized deaths to undershoot their models.  So we believe it is possible that the cumulative death forecasts could fall even further.

 
Secondary economic ripple is to asset holders of America...

As a side note, much of the high amplitude hit to joblessness was seen early in this crisis, because of the abrupt essentially global shutdown, but there remains a secondary effect as the joblessness and social distance begin to ripple across the asset holders of corporate America--holders of assets, including the landlord, banks, suppliers, infrastructure and service providers.   So we should be aware there is a two-step hit coming to the economic data:

- first is the joblessness of the "social distance" victims including restaurants, sports/entertainment, travel-related hotels, airlines, etc.
- second will be the asset holders, as we mentioned, landlords, banks, infrastructure, etc.

And to the extent the healthcare crisis is apexing sooner, the shorter the "social distance" victim recession and therefore, the smaller the economic ripple to the second-order effect.


POINT #1: Widespread deceleration of COVID-19 across vast majority of metro areas, 28% of US sees daily case growth <5%.
We believe the best way to see COVID-19 growth is at the county level (which Johns-Hopkins provides) and a simple way to visualize the spread is to look at diffusion or distribution of daily case growth rates.  And this is showing very good progress:

-  28% of the US (based on sum of counties) is seeing case growth <5% ("green" line) and this line soared over the weekend.  Just 3 days ago, this line was at 12%.  So a full 16% of the US is seeing a massive deceleration of case growth.

- Collectively, 58% of the US is seeing daily case growth <10% per day, or cases take longer than a week to double. Good progress would mean seeing the "green" line (daily growth <5%) and "grey line" (daily case growth >5% <10%) rising while seeing all other lines fall.  And this is happening.

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