The S&P 500 index’s (SPX) historic decline last week sliced through most of the moving averages at the heart of technical analysis, with a break below the 200-week simple moving average at 2636 the most recent casualty. That four-year moving average is a proxy for the secular uptrend of the SPX seen during the bull markets in the 1950s-1960s, 1980s-1990s and 2009-2020.

In other words, the break below the 200-week sma at 2636 raises the risk the recent equity sell-off has ended the secular bull-market. Of course, the 20% plus drop already herald’s the bear market’s arrival.

While this week’s break below the 200-week is a major concern, particularly given the looming global economici slowdown, I believe it is premature to conclude the secular bull market is broken. Of course, I am concerned and not blindly ignoring the risk to equities, but I also believe there are two key technical points to consider before we can declare the secular bull market to be DOA.

Is the secular uptrend broken with SPX below its 200-week sma or just dented?

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First, the chart above illustrates the past three pullbacks to the 200-week sma since 2009. The cycle lows in 2016 and again in December of 2018 were almost textbook examples of a major cycl...

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