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The 8% sell-off was not about "price discovery" but rather "get me out of everything" and now priced 100% probability of a recession

In a way, March 9, 2020 was another "Black Monday" as the ~8% decline ranks it as one the 10 greatest single-day declines in history (out of 22,500 trading days).  Think about that, the sell-off we saw today is one that is seen rarely--but it may feel familiar.  Three of the 10 largest % day took place during the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis.The causes of the sell-off are relatively obvious--it was a double "gut" punch of Corona escalation + massive negative shock (oil -30%)--but did it warrant the massive movements across asset markets?  In just less than 14 trading days, the US equity markets have now priced in the 100% probability of a recession (20% decline) and this is similarly seen in the VIX (both the spot >50 and the magnitude of the term structure inversion) and even plunge in interest rates.  The massive movements on Monday (and Friday) were less about "price discovery" or equilibrium, but rather, a massive repositioning and de-risking by investors, in front of what many worry is a crisis greater than the 2008-2009 GFC.  - The best evidence is the fact that 97% of the S&P 500 trading volume, not 90%, but 99%, was down. There are only around 10 days in the last 40 years where down volume actually rounded to 100% of trading, so Monday ranks as a "sell ...

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