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AAPL pre-announcement implies overall $1.00 to $3.00 hit to S&P 500 1Q2020 EPS hit from Corona virus (first 'stab')

THIS MESSAGE IS SENT SOLELY TO CLIENTS OF FUNDSTRAT GLOBAL ADVISORS Apple, in a press release yesterday, noted March guidance would change as (i) the supply of iPhone would be disrupted by manufacturing issues; (ii) demand in China hurt by retail store closures (owned and partner).  These issues will affect a broad swathe of S&P 500 companies and with this news, we can make a first 'stab' at EPS impact on S&P 500 1Q2020 profits. - Sell-side analysts cut AAPL EPS by ~$0.15 this am (their best guess), which is ~$650 million on a $12.5 billion quarterly net income. Or 5%. - We estimate that 50% of S&P 500 companies will face one or both of the issues cited by AAPL. - Assuming a 5%, 10% or 15% impact on 1Q2020 EPS for those exposed (50%), this implies $1.00 to $3.00 of S&P 500 EPS impact.  S&P 500 quarterly net income is about $342 billion. - We do not see this hit to 1Q 2020 perpetuating into the full-year EPS.  We estimate there will be a snap back of activity post-Corona, and hence, that $1.00 to $3.00 is added back to 2H2020 EPS.- The fact that $8 billion to $25 billion is the potential 1Q2020 impact to S&P 500 profits in 1Q2020 also means fiscal stimulus odds are on the rise, from US, China and Europe. - The hit to European and Asian companies should ...

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