First Word

Enough excuses for S&P 500 to correct 5%-7% (to 50D or 100D mavg) but TINA "put" still in effect...

Since peaking last Tuesday (1/22) at 3,338 (ATH), the S&P 500 has tumbled with two ugly back-to-back days, with equity markets now down 3% from ATH.  While the sell-off is a mere two days, the velocity of the decline has pushed markets into oversold territory.

POINT: The TINA "put" comes into play if 30min RSI (14-period) <30 -- has been a "money" trade in all of 2019...The 30min RSI (14-period) is now oversold at <30 (see below) and the last 4 times this happened, it was a profitable entry point.  In fact, this was true in the last 10 instances (from June 2019). 

- As long as investors remain too long "cash," these pullbacks are bought.  Think of it as TINA (there is no alternative) "put"
- And the TINA "put" is still in effect, as long as the Fed remains "easy" (check, yes) and yields are low (check, yes).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
POINT: But the "wall of worry" has signs of a more than garden variety bad day...Tempering the above view, we think a visit to the 50-day (5% correction) and even 100-day mavg (7%) might be warranted as a cumulative number of factors does heighten the risk that 1H Global GDP comes in the weak side: - Boeing woes are having an impact on US GDP and was evidenced by the weak ISM readings (Dec survey reflected the announcements);- Corona hyp...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Macro, FSI Crypto, FSI Pro, or FSI Weekly subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)